Haas Pavilion · at California · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -14.5✓ DUKE covered by 0.5
DUKE -14.5✓ DUKE covered by 0.5Closing total149.5Under by 22.5
| DUKE | This season | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15-1 | Record | 12-4 |
| 8-8 | ATS | 8-8 |
| 6-10 | O/U | 7-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DUKE 81–68 CAL · ✓ DUKE (88%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 37 | 34 | 71 |
| CAL | 30 | 26 | 56 |
1st half: DUKE 37, CAL 30 (DUKE by 7). The model had DUKE by 8.2 and a total of 69.8 (actual 67).
Team stats
| DUKE | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-62 45% | Field goals | 19-52 37% |
| 7-32 22% | 3-pointers | 5-23 22% |
| 8-17 47% | Free throws | 13-17 76% |
| 44 16 off | Rebounds | 30 6 off |
| 16 | Assists | 9 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 5 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 16 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 31 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 9-16 | 0-3 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 30 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 6-15 | 4-13 |
| Caleb Foster G | 28 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-5 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 23 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Dame Sarr F | 23 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nik Khamenia F | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-9 | 1-5 |
| Maliq Brown F | 22 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Darren Harris G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cameron Sheffield G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Scott, Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Pippen G | 33 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2-11 | 1-5 |
| Dai Dai Ames G | 33 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-11 | 0-2 |
| Lee Dort F | 27 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Chris Bell F | 25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-12 | 1-10 |
| John Camden F | 24 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Milos Ilic C | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| DeJuan Campbell G | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Semetri Carr G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| BJ Fisher G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Luke Butler G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rytis Petraitis, Stephon Marbury II, Sammie Yeanay, Jovani Ruff, Jorell Clark
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDUKE -14.5
ModelDUKE -13.6
Model edgeCAL +0.9
L DUKE covered
Total
Market149.5
Model149.0
Model edgeUnder 0.5
W Under
Projected score
DUKE 81.3 · CAL 67.7
DUKE 71 · CAL 56
Win probability
DUKE 88%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -8.2
DUKE -7.0
Total
69.8
67 points
Projected score
DUKE 39 · CAL 30.8
DUKE 37 · CAL 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -10.5
4 → DUKE
CloseDUKE -14.5
4 pts toward DUKE
Total
Open151.5
▼ 2
Close149.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
DUKE -1100 · CAL +700
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -10.5 · closed DUKE -14.5 · moved 4 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -13.5
model DUKE -13.5
Opened 151.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 2 downmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
| CAL | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
DUKE 1–0 CALDUKE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DUKE 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | CAL 57 @ DUKE 78 | DUKE -23.5 | CAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Duke
16 games played
Straight up
15-1
94% wins
Against the spread
8-8
50% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
covered 8didn’t cover 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
over 6under 10avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
California
16 games played
Straight up
12-4
75% wins
Against the spread
8-8
50% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-9
44% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vsLOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | vs ND | W 72-71 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 7 | @ UVA | L 60-84 | +14.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ VT | L 75-78 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
−2.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−9.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 8avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
+4.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−4.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+4.5
over 7under 9avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Duke
15-1 overall · 4-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs SMU82–75
- W@ Louisville84–73
- W@ Florida St91–87
- Wvs Georgia Tech85–79
- Lvs Texas Tech81–82
4 days since their last game.
California
12-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Virginia Tech75–78
- L@ Virginia60–84
- Wvs Notre Dame72–71
- Lvs Louisville70–90
- Wvs Columbia74–56
4 days since their last game.