Lenovo Center · at NC State · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -4.5✓ UVA covered by 19.5
NCSU -4.5✓ UVA covered by 19.5Closing total151.5Under by 14.5
 UVA | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2 | Record | 10-4 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 8-6 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 7-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 77–81 NCSU · ✗ NCSU (65%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 40 | 36 | 76 |
| NCSU | 20 | 41 | 61 |
1st half: UVA 40, NCSU 20 (UVA by 20). The model had NCSU by 2.5 and a total of 73.8 (actual 60).
Team stats
| UVA | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-52 50% | Field goals | 18-50 36% |
| 13-33 39% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 20-25 80% |
| 36 9 off | Rebounds | 24 7 off |
| 14 | Assists | 7 |
| 3 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 33 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Malik Thomas G | 25 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 5-15 | 3-8 |
| Sam Lewis G | 25 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 8-12 | 5-9 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 23 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 23 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 26 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Devin Tillis F | 24 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 17 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jacari White, Silas Barksdale, Desmond Roberts, Martin Carrere, Owen Odom, Carter Lang
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadir Copeland G | 34 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Darrion Williams F | 31 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 30 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 30 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Alyn Breed G | 24 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Tre Holloman G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Colt Langdon, Jerry Deng, Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins, Scottie Ebube, Jayme Kontuniemi
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNCSU -4.5
ModelNCSU -4.4
Model edgeUVA +0.1
W UVA covered
Total
Market151.5
Model157.5
Model edgeOver 6.0
L Under
Projected score
UVA 76.5 · NCSU 80.9
UVA 76 · NCSU 61
Win probability
NCSU 65%
1st half
Spread
NCSU -2.5
UVA -20.0
Total
73.8
60 points
Projected score
UVA 35.6 · NCSU 38.1
UVA 40 · NCSU 20
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -3.5
1 → NCSU
CloseNCSU -4.5
1 pt toward NCSU
Total
Open155.5
▼ 4
Close151.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
UVA +170 · NCSU -205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -3.5 · closed NCSU -4.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel NCSU -4.5 matches the line
model NCSU -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 155.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 4 downmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| NCSU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
UVA 3–3 NCSUSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · UVA 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024-25 | NCSU 67 @ UVA 70 | UVA -0.5 | UVA W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | NCSU 73 vs UVA 65 | UVA -2.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | NCSU 53 @ UVA 59 | UVA -5.5 | UVA W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | UVA 60 @ NCSU 76 | NCSU -1.5 | NCSU W |
| Feb 7, 2022-23 | NCSU 50 @ UVA 63 | UVA -7.5 | UVA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
13 games played
Straight up
11-2
85% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
over 7under 6avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
14 games played
Straight up
10-4
71% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsNCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vsTEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vs WAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
over 7under 7avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
11-2 overall · 0-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Virginia Tech85–95
- Wvs American95–51
- Wvs Maryland80–72
- Wvs MD Eastern84–60
- Wvs Dayton86–73
3 days since their last game.
NC State
10-4 overall · 1-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wake Forest70–57
- Wvs Ole Miss76–62
- Wvs Texas Southern108–72
- Lvs Kansas76–77
- Wvs Liberty85–45
3 days since their last game.