MVP Arena · at Siena · Conference game
Closing line
SIE -5.5✓ MRMK covered by 9.5
SIE -5.5✓ MRMK covered by 9.5Closing total132.5Under by 10.5
 MRMK | This season | SIE |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | Record | 10-5 |
| 9-7 | ATS | 9-6 |
| 5-11 | O/U | 5-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MRMK 64–70 SIE · ✗ SIE (72%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 38 | 25 | 63 |
| SIE | 22 | 37 | 59 |
1st half: MRMK 38, SIE 22 (MRMK by 16). The model had SIE by 3.9 and a total of 62.9 (actual 60).
Team stats
| MRMK | SIE | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-51 43% | Field goals | 24-58 41% |
| 9-20 45% | 3-pointers | 4-16 25% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 7-9 78% |
| 25 10 off | Rebounds | 39 18 off |
| 14 | Assists | 9 |
| 10 | Steals | 2 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| MRMK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tye Dorset G | 40 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Kevair Kennedy G | 40 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6-16 | 1-2 |
| Ernest Shelton G | 32 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Todd Brogna F | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Andrés Marrero G | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| KC Ugwuakazi F | 25 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Stinson G | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Veillette F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aliou Cisse, Jacob Moore, Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro, Brendan Johnson, Brandon Legris, Malik Edmead
| SIE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Doty G | 40 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-17 | 3-7 |
| Justice Shoats G | 37 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Francis Folefac F | 36 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8-14 | 0-0 |
| Brendan Coyle G | 32 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
| Antonio Chandler F | 30 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Christian Jones G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Riley Mulvey C | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Henderson G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Danny Murray, Tajae Jones, Owen Schlager, Cooper Nadler, Chris Torres, Tasman Goodrick, Mosi Clayton, Marcus Jackson, Reid Ducharme
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSIE -5.5
ModelSIE -6.7
Model edgeSIE +1.2
L MRMK covered
Total
Market132.5
Model134.1
Model edgeOver 1.6
L Under
Projected score
MRMK 63.7 · SIE 70.4
MRMK 63 · SIE 59
Win probability
SIE 72%
1st half
Spread
SIE -3.9
MRMK -16.0
Total
62.9
60 points
Projected score
MRMK 29.5 · SIE 33.4
MRMK 38 · SIE 22
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSIE -5.5
no move
CloseSIE -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open132.5
no move
Close132.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MRMK +200 · SIE -245
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SIE -5.5 · unchangedmodel SIE -6.5
model SIE -6.5
Opened 132.5 · unchangedmodel 134
model 134
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| SIE | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MRMK 1–0 SIEMRMK leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MRMK 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | SIE 58 @ MRMK 64 | MRMK -6.5 | SIE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Merrimack
16 games played
Straight up
9-7
56% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-11
31% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SDST | L 66-75 | +6.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 6 | @ AUB | L 57-95 | +23.5 | L −14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | @ TAR | L 62-76 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ BU | W 91-79 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 135.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ME | W 72-65 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Nov 21 | @ FLA | L 45-80 | +36.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 28 | @ PENN | L 65-77 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs HOF | L 58-78 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 30 | vs LAS | W 66-60 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 132.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 4 | vs RID | W 68-66 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 7 | vs FAIR | W 74-63 | -3.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 10 | @ PRIN | W 59-56 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 14 | @ UVM | L 59-66 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 136.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 29 | @ SHU | W 80-72 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 2 | vs MSM | W 75-65 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 4 | vs MAN | W 73-66 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 66-75
−2.5
6
@AUB
AUBL 57-95
−14.5
11
@TAR
TARL 62-76
−9.5
15
@BU
BUW 91-79
+14.5
19
vsME
MEW 72-65
+0.5
21
@FLA
FLAL 45-80
+1.5
28
@PENN
PENNL 65-77
−9.5
29
vsHOF
HOFL 58-78
−14.5
30
vsLAS
LASW 66-60
+8.5
4
vsRID
RIDW 68-66
−7.5
7
vsFAIR
FAIRW 74-63
+7.5
10
@PRIN
PRINW 59-56
+5.5
14
@UVM
UVML 59-66
−0.5
29
@SHU
SHUW 80-72
+9.5
2
vsMSM
MSMW 75-65
+6.5
4
vsMAN
MANW 73-66
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 66-75
−2.5
6
@AUB
AUBL 57-95
+3.5
11
@TAR
TARL 62-76
−4.5
15
@BU
BUW 91-79
+34.5
19
vsME
MEW 72-65
+6.5
21
@FLA
FLAL 45-80
−33.5
28
@PENN
PENNL 65-77
−10.5
29
vsHOF
HOFL 58-78
+0.5
30
vsLAS
LASW 66-60
−6.5
4
vsRID
RIDW 68-66
−4.5
7
vsFAIR
FAIRW 74-63
−7.5
10
@PRIN
PRINW 59-56
−19.5
14
@UVM
UVML 59-66
−11.5
29
@SHU
SHUW 80-72
+7.5
2
vsMSM
MSMW 75-65
−1.5
4
vsMAN
MANW 73-66
−9.5
over 5under 11avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Siena
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-10
33% overs · avg −4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BRY | W 82-66 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | @ BRWN | W 62-46 | -3.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 108 |
| Nov 12 | @ SBU | L 66-75 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 17 | vs COLG | L 69-72 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 21 | vs UALB | W 73-63 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 24 | @ HC | W 73-69 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs LONG | W 70-63 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | @ AMER | W 59-55 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 114 |
| Nov 30 | vsME | W 64-60 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 127.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 5 | vs NIA | W 83-54 | -12.5 | W +16.5 | 129.5 | O 137 |
| Dec 7 | vs CAN | W 74-52 | -17.5 | W +4.5 | 131.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 17 | @UVM | L 69-83 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 134.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 22 | @ IU | L 60-81 | +21.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 2 | @ IONA | L 72-75 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 4 | @RID | W 74-65 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | O 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBRY
BRYW 82-66
+2.5
7
@BRWN
BRWNW 62-46
+12.5
12
@SBU
SBUL 66-75
+0.5
17
vsCOLG
COLGL 69-72
−9.5
21
vsUALB
UALBW 73-63
−0.5
24
@HC
HCW 73-69
−5.5
28
vsLONG
LONGW 70-63
+1.5
29
@AMER
AMERW 59-55
+1.5
30
vsME
MEW 64-60
−5.5
5
vsNIA
NIAW 83-54
+16.5
7
vsCAN
CANW 74-52
+4.5
17
@UVM
UVML 69-83
−11.5
22
@IU
IUL 60-81
+0.5
2
@IONA
IONAL 72-75
−4.5
4
@RID
RIDW 74-65
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBRY
BRYW 82-66
−0.5
7
@BRWN
BRWNW 62-46
−34.5
12
@SBU
SBUL 66-75
+0.5
17
vsCOLG
COLGL 69-72
−5.5
21
vsUALB
UALBW 73-63
−4.5
24
@HC
HCW 73-69
+4.5
28
vsLONG
LONGW 70-63
−12.5
29
@AMER
AMERW 59-55
−23.5
30
vsME
MEW 64-60
−3.5
5
vsNIA
NIAW 83-54
+7.5
7
vsCAN
CANW 74-52
−5.5
17
@UVM
UVML 69-83
+17.5
22
@IU
IUL 60-81
−4.5
2
@IONA
IONAL 72-75
−2.5
4
@RID
RIDW 74-65
+3.5
over 5under 10avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Merrimack
9-7 overall · 5-0 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Manhattan73–66
- Wvs Mount St Marys75–65
- W@ Sacred Heart80–72
- L@ Vermont59–66
- W@ Princeton59–56
5 days since their last game.
Siena
10-5 overall · 3-1 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Rider74–65
- L@ Iona72–75
- L@ Indiana60–81
- L@ Vermont69–83
- Wvs Canisius74–52
5 days since their last game.