Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield · Conference game
Closing line
MRST -1.5✓ FAIR covered by 4.5
MRST -1.5✓ FAIR covered by 4.5Closing total138.5Under by 15.5
| MRST | This season | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| 15-7 | Record | 14-10 |
| 12-10 | ATS | 9-15 |
| 8-14 | O/U | 12-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MRST 71–68 FAIR · ✗ MRST (62%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRST | 25 | 35 | 60 |
| FAIR | 28 | 35 | 63 |
1st half: MRST 25, FAIR 28 (FAIR by 3). The model had MRST by 2.2 and a total of 64.9 (actual 53).
Team stats
| MRST | FAIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-55 38% | Field goals | 23-56 41% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 7-28 25% |
| 12-13 92% | Free throws | 10-13 77% |
| 38 12 off | Rebounds | 31 9 off |
| 10 | Assists | 12 |
| 2 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MRST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadin Collins-Roberts G | 36 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-2 |
| Justin Menard G | 36 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 7-14 | 2-5 |
| Elijah Lewis G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Trace Salton F | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jason Schofield C | 15 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Rhyjon Blackwell G | 31 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3-9 | 0-3 |
| Parby Kabamba F | 23 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Myles Parker F | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Jaden Daughtry F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Gabriel C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Antoni Vlogianitis, Ricky McKenzie, Martin Kawa, Tarik Watson
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Sparks G | 38 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 7-17 | 4-11 |
| Declan Wucherpfennig G | 36 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 6-9 | 0-2 |
| Brandon Benjamin F | 32 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Tony Williams G | 26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Halon Rawlins G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Deuce Turner G | 24 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3-11 | 1-7 |
| Eric Mejia G | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Zan F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Isaac Munkadi F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cam Estevez G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nasir Rodriguez, Aidan May, Tanner Ostop, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Michael Rogan, Noah Best
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMRST -1.5
ModelMRST -3.4
Model edgeMRST +1.9
L FAIR covered
Total
Market138.5
Model138.6
Model edgeOver 0.1
L Under
Projected score
MRST 71 · FAIR 67.6
MRST 60 · FAIR 63
Win probability
MRST 62%
1st half
Spread
MRST -2.2
FAIR -3.0
Total
64.9
53 points
Projected score
MRST 33.5 · FAIR 31.4
MRST 25 · FAIR 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFAIR -1.5
3 → MRST
CloseMRST -1.5
3 pts toward MRST
Total
Open138.5
no move
Close138.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MRST -125 · FAIR +105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FAIR -1.5 · closed MRST -1.5 · moved 3 toward MRSTmodel MRST -3.5
model MRST -3.5
Opened 138.5 · unchangedmodel 138.5 matches the line
model 138.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRST | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| FAIR | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MRST 4–6 FAIRFAIR leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MRST 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | FAIR 67 @ MRST 82 | MRST -8.5 | MRST W |
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | MRST 56 @ FAIR 59 | FAIR +6.5 | FAIR W |
| Jan 12, 2024-25 | FAIR 51 @ MRST 61 | MRST -7.5 | MRST W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | MRST 61 vs FAIR 65 | FAIR -5.5 | MRST W |
| Mar 1, 2023-24 | FAIR 55 @ MRST 58 | MRST +1.5 | MRST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Marist
22 games played
Straight up
15-7
68% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-14
36% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ XAV | L 62-66 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 9 | @ DART | W 75-56 | +1.5 | W +20.5 | 138.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs HARV | L 54-56 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 130.5 | U 110 |
| Nov 21 | vs ARMY | W 76-65 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 25 | vs LEH | W 78-55 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Dec 5 | vs MSM | W 64-56 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 136.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 7 | vs MAN | W 80-68 | -7.5 | W +4.5 | 140.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 13 | @ BRY | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 131.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | @ GT | L 76-87 | +6.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs STBK | W 70-51 | -6.5 | W +12.5 | 137.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 29 | @ QUIN | L 58-64 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 2 | @ SPU | L 59-69 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 133.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 4 | vs IONA | W 83-38 | -4.5 | W +40.5 | 148.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 9 | @ SHU | W 76-72 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 11 | @ RID | W 71-49 | -10.5 | W +11.5 | 131.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 17 | vsFAIR | W 82-67 | -8.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 19 | vs MRMK | L 55-68 | -6.5 | L −19.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 22 | @ SIE | L 50-69 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 133.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 24 | vsQUIN | W 71-64 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 30 | @ CAN | W 88-86 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 129.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 1 | @ NIA | W 58-46 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 128.5 | U 104 |
| Feb 5 | vsRID | W 81-52 | -14.5 | W +14.5 | 135.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@XAV
XAVL 62-66
+8.5
9
@DART
DARTW 75-56
+20.5
16
vsHARV
HARVL 54-56
−8.5
21
vsARMY
ARMYW 76-65
−1.5
25
vsLEH
LEHW 78-55
+15.5
5
vsMSM
MSMW 64-56
−0.5
7
vsMAN
MANW 80-68
+4.5
13
@BRY
BRYW 82-74
+6.5
16
@GT
GTL 76-87
−4.5
21
vsSTBK
STBKW 70-51
+12.5
29
@QUIN
QUINL 58-64
−3.5
2
@SPU
SPUL 59-69
−12.5
4
vsIONA
IONAW 83-38
+40.5
9
@SHU
SHUW 76-72
−1.5
11
@RID
RIDW 71-49
+11.5
17
vsFAIR
FAIRW 82-67
+6.5
19
vsMRMK
MRMKL 55-68
−19.5
22
@SIE
SIEL 50-69
−17.5
24
vsQUIN
QUINW 71-64
+3.5
30
@CAN
CANW 88-86
−7.5
1
@NIA
NIAW 58-46
+2.5
5
vsRID
RIDW 81-52
+14.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@XAV
XAVL 62-66
−11.5
9
@DART
DARTW 75-56
−7.5
16
vsHARV
HARVL 54-56
−20.5
21
vsARMY
ARMYW 76-65
+8.5
25
vsLEH
LEHW 78-55
+0.5
5
vsMSM
MSMW 64-56
−16.5
7
vsMAN
MANW 80-68
+7.5
13
@BRY
BRYW 82-74
+24.5
16
@GT
GTL 76-87
+21.5
21
vsSTBK
STBKW 70-51
−16.5
29
@QUIN
QUINL 58-64
−23.5
2
@SPU
SPUL 59-69
−5.5
4
vsIONA
IONAW 83-38
−27.5
9
@SHU
SHUW 76-72
+4.5
11
@RID
RIDW 71-49
−11.5
17
vsFAIR
FAIRW 82-67
+7.5
19
vsMRMK
MRMKL 55-68
−10.5
22
@SIE
SIEL 50-69
−14.5
24
vsQUIN
QUINW 71-64
−4.5
30
@CAN
CANW 88-86
+44.5
1
@NIA
NIAW 58-46
−24.5
5
vsRID
RIDW 81-52
−2.5
over 8under 14avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Fairfield
24 games played
Straight up
14-10
58% wins
Against the spread
9-15
38% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ PSU | L 68-76 | +15.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NJIT | W 74-53 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 10 | @ HALL | L 59-82 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs STO | W 73-71 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 16 | vs L-MD | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 22 | @ LEM | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 26 | vs COLU | L 77-106 | +3.5 | L −25.5 | 150.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 30 | vs UNH | W 72-68 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 5 | @MAN | L 66-70 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 7 | @MRMK | L 63-74 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 14 | vs MONM | W 73-65 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | @ CCSU | W 84-70 | +6.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 29 | vsSPU | L 66-70 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 2 | @CAN | L 81-85 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 4 | @NIA | W 83-75 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 9 | vsRID | W 68-62 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | vsMAN | W 98-62 | -6.5 | W +29.5 | 158.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 17 | @MRST | L 67-82 | +8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 19 | @SIE | L 77-85 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 22 | vsNIA | W 62-61 | -10.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 24 | vsCAN | W 61-55 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Jan 30 | @IONA | W 71-70 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | vsQUIN | L 65-72 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 5 | @SHU | W 92-87 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
+7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
+14.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
−8.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
−4.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
−2.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+12.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
−25.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−5.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−5.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
+10.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+20.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−6.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
−10.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+4.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−2.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 98-62
+29.5
17
@MRST
MRSTL 67-82
−6.5
19
@SIE
SIEL 77-85
−1.5
22
vsNIA
NIAW 62-61
−9.5
24
vsCAN
CANW 61-55
−4.5
30
@IONA
IONAW 71-70
+2.5
1
vsQUIN
QUINL 65-72
−4.5
5
@SHU
SHUW 92-87
+6.5
covered 9didn’t cover 15avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
−7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
−18.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
+3.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
+0.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
+31.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+34.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
+32.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−7.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−19.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
−5.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+10.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−4.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
+25.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+19.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−15.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 98-62
+1.5
17
@MRST
MRSTL 67-82
+7.5
19
@SIE
SIEL 77-85
+19.5
22
vsNIA
NIAW 62-61
−16.5
24
vsCAN
CANW 61-55
−25.5
30
@IONA
IONAW 71-70
−5.5
1
vsQUIN
QUINL 65-72
−17.5
5
@SHU
SHUW 92-87
+23.5
over 12under 12avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Marist
15-7 overall · 10-4 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Rider81–52
- W@ Niagara58–46
- W@ Canisius88–86
- Wvs Quinnipiac71–64
- L@ Siena50–69
2 days since their last game.
Fairfield
14-10 overall · 7-7 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Sacred Heart92–87
- Lvs Quinnipiac65–72
- W@ Iona71–70
- Wvs Canisius61–55
- Wvs Niagara62–61
2 days since their last game.