Hawkins Arena · at Mercer · Conference game
Closing line
MER -18.5✓ VMI covered by 4.5
MER -18.5✓ VMI covered by 4.5Closing total153.5Over by 22.5
 VMI | This season | MER |
|---|---|---|
| 3-16 | Record | 11-8 |
| 6-13 | ATS | 16-3 |
| 8-11 | O/U | 10-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VMI 69–87 MER · ✓ MER (94%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 37 | 44 | 81 |
| MER | 43 | 52 | 95 |
1st half: VMI 37, MER 43 (MER by 6). The model had MER by 10.5 and a total of 72.6 (actual 80).
Team stats
| VMI | MER | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-62 42% | Field goals | 32-64 50% |
| 16-42 38% | 3-pointers | 9-31 29% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 22-29 76% |
| 28 8 off | Rebounds | 46 15 off |
| 18 | Assists | 21 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| VMI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Johnson F | 40 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 8-16 | 7-15 |
| Tan Yildizoglu G | 37 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 5-12 | 1-5 |
| Linus Holmstrom G | 35 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 5-9 | 3-7 |
| AJ Clark G | 33 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Cal Liston F | 23 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4-9 | 4-9 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mario Tatum Jr. G | 19 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Kaden Stuckey F | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Pazon G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Branford Edmonds III, Alexander Daushvili, Mason Lawson, Mason Hagedorn, Robert Peters, Walker Andrews, Rickey Bradley Jr.
| MER | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baraka Okojie G | 38 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 7-12 | 0-4 |
| Armani Mighty C | 37 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Brady Shoulders G | 36 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 3-10 | 2-5 |
| Zaire Williams G | 26 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-11 | 2-9 |
| Kyle Cuffe Jr. G | 25 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 7-14 | 2-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Connor Serven F | 21 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Tristan Gross G | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Bendji Pierre F | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Jaydon Cole, Pero Zubac, NJ Nganga, Braeden Carlsen, Alex Koch, Quinton Perkins II, Petras Padegimas, TJ Grant
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMER -18.5
ModelMER -17.8
Model edgeVMI +0.7
W VMI covered
Total
Market153.5
Model155.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
W Over
Projected score
VMI 68.7 · MER 86.5
VMI 81 · MER 95
Win probability
MER 94%
1st half
Spread
MER -10.5
MER -6.0
Total
72.6
80 points
Projected score
VMI 31.1 · MER 41.6
VMI 37 · MER 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMER -18.5
no move
CloseMER -18.5
No change since the open
Total
Open155.5
▼ 2
Close153.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
VMI +1200 · MER -2400
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MER -18.5 · unchangedmodel MER -18
model MER -18
Opened 155.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 2 downmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 1-9 10% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| MER | 6-4 60% | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
VMI 2–7 MERMER leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · VMI 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2025-26 | MER 77 @ VMI 67 | VMI +8.5 | MER W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | VMI 80 @ MER 71 | MER -7.5 | VMI W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | MER 70 @ VMI 67 | VMI +5.5 | VMI W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | VMI 69 @ MER 90 | MER -11.5 | MER W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | MER 86 @ VMI 64 | VMI +5.5 | MER W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VMI
19 games played
Straight up
3-16
16% wins
Against the spread
6-13
32% covers · avg −6.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-11
42% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ USI | W 78-74 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 9 | @ MIZ | L 68-106 | +23.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs JAX | L 67-69 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 19 | @ RICH | L 54-87 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 22 | @ STET | L 80-99 | -2.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 24 | vs BUF | L 70-78 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BGSU | L 48-81 | +11.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 29 | @ UCF | L 57-82 | +25.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 9 | vs L-MD | W 86-70 | +2.5 | W +18.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | @ RAD | L 90-97 | +11.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 1 | vs SAM | L 58-78 | +6.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | vs UTC | W 79-71 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 7 | @ ETSU | L 67-81 | +16.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @ FUR | L 48-69 | +12.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 15 | vsMER | L 67-77 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs CIT | L 68-82 | -6.5 | L −20.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 21 | vs UNCG | L 78-85 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 24 | @ WCU | L 58-88 | +8.5 | L −21.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 29 | @CIT | L 56-80 | +2.5 | L −21.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
+1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
−14.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−0.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−18.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
−21.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−21.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
+0.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+18.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+4.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−13.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+14.5
7
@ETSU
ETSUL 67-81
+2.5
10
@FUR
FURL 48-69
−8.5
15
vsMER
MERL 67-77
−1.5
17
vsCIT
CITL 68-82
−20.5
21
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-85
−4.5
24
@WCU
WCUL 58-88
−21.5
29
@CIT
CITL 56-80
−21.5
covered 6didn’t cover 13avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
−1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
+12.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−15.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−11.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
+30.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−19.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
−20.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+4.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+28.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−18.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+0.5
7
@ETSU
ETSUL 67-81
+1.5
10
@FUR
FURL 48-69
−32.5
15
vsMER
MERL 67-77
−9.5
17
vsCIT
CITL 68-82
+6.5
21
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-85
+11.5
24
@WCU
WCUL 58-88
−6.5
29
@CIT
CITL 56-80
−6.5
over 8under 11avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mercer
19 games played
Straight up
11-8
58% wins
Against the spread
16-3
84% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-9
53% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TENN | L 61-76 | +28.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 9 | vs LIP | W 92-77 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 15 | @ WIN | L 69-105 | +2.5 | L −33.5 | 162.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 22 | @ EKU | W 95-83 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 26 | vs APP | W 75-67 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | @ ELON | W 91-84 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 2 | vs GAST | W 78-67 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | @ CLEM | L 63-70 | +22.5 | W +15.5 | 152.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 17 | @UCF | L 63-81 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | @ WSU | L 78-84 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | @FUR | L 72-74 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 3 | @ETSU | L 71-77 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsCIT | W 101-63 | -16.5 | W +21.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 10 | vs WOF | W 109-97 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 206 |
| Jan 15 | @VMI | W 77-67 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @UNCG | W 102-92 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Jan 21 | vsWCU | W 88-76 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 24 | @WOF | L 77-80 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 29 | vsUNCG | W 95-77 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
+13.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
−33.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+16.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
+1.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+9.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
+0.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
+15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−1.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+1.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
+0.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
+1.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+21.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+8.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
+1.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+4.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+3.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−5.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+7.5
covered 16didn’t cover 3avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
−6.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
+11.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+14.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
−0.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+15.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
−10.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
−19.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−16.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+10.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
−8.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
−0.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+16.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+49.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
−9.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+38.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+5.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−0.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+13.5
over 10under 9avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VMI
3-16 overall · 1-8 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ The Citadel56–80
- L@ W Carolina58–88
- Lvs UNC Greensboro78–85
- Lvs The Citadel68–82
- Lvs Mercer67–77
2 days since their last game.
Mercer
11-8 overall · 6-3 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UNC Greensboro95–77
- L@ Wofford77–80
- Wvs W Carolina88–76
- W@ UNC Greensboro102–92
- W@ VMI77–67
2 days since their last game.