Mott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly · Conference game
Closing line
CP -8.5✓ CP covered by 23.5
CP -8.5✓ CP covered by 23.5Closing total174.5Over by 9.5
 CSUB | This season | CP |
|---|---|---|
| 6-23 | Record | 11-18 |
| 12-17 | ATS | 15-14 |
| 15-14 | O/U | 17-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CSUB 81–89 CP · ✓ CP (76%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUB | 41 | 35 | 76 |
| CP | 62 | 46 | 108 |
1st half: CSUB 41, CP 62 (CP by 21). The model had CP by 4.7 and a total of 79.0 (actual 103).
Team stats
| CSUB | CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-67 42% | Field goals | 38-79 48% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 13-36 36% |
| 13-20 65% | Free throws | 19-24 79% |
| 38 13 off | Rebounds | 46 16 off |
| 11 | Assists | 21 |
| 5 | Steals | 11 |
| 7 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| CSUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailin Smith G | 33 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 7-16 | 4-10 |
| Kadar Waller G | 25 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Tom Mark F | 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-3 |
| CJ Hardy G | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Ronald Jessamy F | 23 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dylan Purnell G | 26 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 4-11 | 0-1 |
| Bentley Waller G | 22 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5-7 | 2-3 |
| Mike Price G | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| TJ James Jr. G | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
Did not play: AJ George, Pierre Geneste Jr., Jaden Alexander, Colin Darby, Caleb McCarty
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayden Ward G | 27 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 5-9 | 2-4 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 25 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 25 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 9-15 | 4-7 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 20 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-8 | 3-5 |
| Austin Goode F | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jackson Mosley PG | 19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-6 |
| Jake Davis G | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 17 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| Ali Assran F | 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Aaron Price Jr. PF | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Eric Brown F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jason Scott, Luka Tarlac, Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Kieran Elliott
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCP -9.5
1 → CSUB
CloseCP -8.5
1 pt toward CSUB
Total
Open172.5
▲ 2
Close174.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
CSUB +380 · CP -500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CP -9.5 · closed CP -8.5 · moved 1 toward CSUBmodel CP -8
model CP -8
Opened 172.5 · closed 174.5 · moved 2 upmodel 169
model 169
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CP -8.5 | CP -8.2 | CSUB +0.3 | L CP covered |
| Total | 174.5 | 169.2 | Under 5.3 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | CSUB 80.5 · CP 88.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CP -4.7 | CP -21.0 |
| 1H total | 79.0 | 103 |
| 1H projected score | CSUB 37.1 · CP 41.9 | CSUB 41 · CP 62 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSUB | 0-10 0% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| CP | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
CSUB 6–3 CPCSUB leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CP has won the last 3 meetings · CSUB 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025-26 | CP 104 @ CSUB 79 | CSUB +1.5 | CP W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | CSUB 72 @ CP 98 | CP -3.5 | CP W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | CP 90 @ CSUB 81 | CSUB -3.5 | CP W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | CSUB 68 @ CP 56 | CP +6.5 | CSUB W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | CP 53 @ CSUB 65 | CSUB -9.5 | CSUB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bakersfield
29 games played
Straight up
6-23
21% wins
Against the spread
12-17
41% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-14
52% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CAL | L 60-87 | +15.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 11 | vs WIU | W 74-58 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 14 | @ MISS | L 60-82 | +23.5 | W +1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 17 | @ PRST | L 80-93 | +8.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 22 | vs MVSU | W 86-70 | -21.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 25 | @ FSU | L 59-89 | +26.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 30 | vs FRES | W 76-71 | +10.5 | W +15.5 | 150.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUN | L 66-87 | +5.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 6 | @ UCSB | L 84-109 | +12.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 11 | vs NDSU | L 69-80 | +7.5 | L −3.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs PEPP | L 62-70 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 23 | vs IDHO | W 64-63 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 1 | vs UCI | L 77-81 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 3 | @ UCD | W 81-79 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | vs UCR | W 67-66 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @ LBSU | L 75-81 | +6.5 | W +0.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 15 | vsUCSB | L 69-75 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs UCSD | L 62-83 | +8.5 | L −12.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 22 | @ HAW | L 71-98 | +17.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 29 | vsCP | L 79-104 | +1.5 | L −23.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 31 | vsUCD | L 72-80 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 5 | @UCI | L 62-78 | +16.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 7 | @ CSUF | L 66-82 | +9.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 12 | vsHAW | L 74-89 | +13.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 19 | @UCR | L 65-93 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 21 | vsCSUF | L 80-88 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 26 | @UCSD | L 72-84 | +14.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vsLBSU | L 87-88 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 175 |
| Mar 5 | vsCSUN | L 84-86 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CAL
CALL 60-87
−11.5
11
vsWIU
WIUW 74-58
+8.5
14
@MISS
MISSL 60-82
+1.5
17
@PRST
PRSTL 80-93
−4.5
22
vsMVSU
MVSUW 86-70
−5.5
25
@FSU
FSUL 59-89
−3.5
30
vsFRES
FRESW 76-71
+15.5
4
@CSUN
CSUNL 66-87
−15.5
6
@UCSB
UCSBL 84-109
−12.5
11
vsNDSU
NDSUL 69-80
−3.5
13
vsPEPP
PEPPL 62-70
−9.5
23
vsIDHO
IDHOW 64-63
+8.5
1
vsUCI
UCIL 77-81
+7.5
3
@UCD
UCDW 81-79
+11.5
8
vsUCR
UCRW 67-66
−2.5
10
@LBSU
LBSUL 75-81
+0.5
15
vsUCSB
UCSBL 69-75
+1.5
17
vsUCSD
UCSDL 62-83
−12.5
22
@HAW
HAWL 71-98
−9.5
29
vsCP
CPL 79-104
−23.5
31
vsUCD
UCDL 72-80
−2.5
5
@UCI
UCIL 62-78
+0.5
7
@CSUF
CSUFL 66-82
−6.5
12
vsHAW
HAWL 74-89
−1.5
19
@UCR
UCRL 65-93
−21.5
21
vsCSUF
CSUFL 80-88
−2.5
26
@UCSD
UCSDL 72-84
+2.5
28
vsLBSU
LBSUL 87-88
+2.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 84-86
+6.5
covered 12didn’t cover 17avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CAL
CALL 60-87
−0.5
11
vsWIU
WIUW 74-58
−9.5
14
@MISS
MISSL 60-82
+1.5
17
@PRST
PRSTL 80-93
+31.5
22
vsMVSU
MVSUW 86-70
+17.5
25
@FSU
FSUL 59-89
−11.5
30
vsFRES
FRESW 76-71
−3.5
4
@CSUN
CSUNL 66-87
−2.5
6
@UCSB
UCSBL 84-109
+47.5
11
vsNDSU
NDSUL 69-80
−0.5
13
vsPEPP
PEPPL 62-70
−15.5
23
vsIDHO
IDHOW 64-63
−23.5
1
vsUCI
UCIL 77-81
+14.5
3
@UCD
UCDW 81-79
+8.5
8
vsUCR
UCRW 67-66
−14.5
10
@LBSU
LBSUL 75-81
+13.5
15
vsUCSB
UCSBL 69-75
−0.5
17
vsUCSD
UCSDL 62-83
−2.5
22
@HAW
HAWL 71-98
+24.5
29
vsCP
CPL 79-104
+21.5
31
vsUCD
UCDL 72-80
−0.5
5
@UCI
UCIL 62-78
−4.5
7
@CSUF
CSUFL 66-82
−9.5
12
vsHAW
HAWL 74-89
+11.5
19
@UCR
UCRL 65-93
+7.5
21
vsCSUF
CSUFL 80-88
+7.5
26
@UCSD
UCSDL 72-84
+7.5
28
vsLBSU
LBSUL 87-88
+22.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 84-86
+6.5
over 15under 14avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cal Poly
29 games played
Straight up
11-18
38% wins
Against the spread
15-14
52% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-12
59% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @ SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vsUCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCLA | L 87-108 | +24.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 21 | vsIDHO | L 80-83 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 1 | vsUCSD | W 67-65 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | @LBSU | L 66-74 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 8 | @CSUN | L 90-95 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 10 | vsUCD | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 15 | vsHAW | L 66-86 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 22 | @UCSB | L 67-107 | +8.5 | L −31.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 24 | vsCSUF | L 78-93 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 29 | @CSUB | W 104-79 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 31 | @UCR | W 94-87 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 5 | vsCSUN | L 96-97 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 177.5 | O 193 |
| Feb 7 | @UCD | L 58-67 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 12 | vsUCI | W 79-73 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 161.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 14 | vsUCSB | W 89-79 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 19 | @HAW | W 86-75 | +11.5 | W +22.5 | 160.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 26 | vsLBSU | W 102-92 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 194 |
| Feb 28 | @UCSD | L 64-80 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Mar 5 | @UCI | L 85-107 | +9.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | O 192 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+3.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−1.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
+10.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−5.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+1.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
+7.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−14.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
−31.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−13.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+23.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+8.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+1.5
7
@UCD
UCDL 58-67
−3.5
12
vsUCI
UCIW 79-73
+11.5
14
vsUCSB
UCSBW 89-79
+13.5
19
@HAW
HAWW 86-75
+22.5
26
vsLBSU
LBSUW 102-92
+4.5
28
@UCSD
UCSDL 64-80
−8.5
5
@UCI
UCIL 85-107
−12.5
covered 15didn’t cover 14avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+33.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−4.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
−42.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−22.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+9.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
−6.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−8.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
+14.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−2.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+21.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+18.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+15.5
7
@UCD
UCDL 58-67
−44.5
12
vsUCI
UCIW 79-73
−9.5
14
vsUCSB
UCSBW 89-79
+8.5
19
@HAW
HAWW 86-75
+0.5
26
vsLBSU
LBSUW 102-92
+31.5
28
@UCSD
UCSDL 64-80
−20.5
5
@UCI
UCIL 85-107
+31.5
over 17under 12avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Bakersfield
6-23 overall · 2-17 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs CSU Northridge84–86
- Lvs Long Beach St87–88
- L@ UC San Diego72–84
- Lvs Fullerton80–88
- L@ UC Riverside65–93
2 days since their last game.
Cal Poly
11-18 overall · 9-10 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UC Irvine85–107
- L@ UC San Diego64–80
- Wvs Long Beach St102–92
- W@ Hawai'i86–75
- Wvs Santa Barbara89–79
2 days since their last game.