Mitchell Center · at South Alabama · Conference game
Closing line
USA -9.5✓ UL covered by 12.5
USA -9.5✓ UL covered by 12.5Closing total129.5Under by 14.5
 UL | This season | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-15 | Record | 11-5 |
| 8-11 | ATS | 8-8 |
| 7-12 | O/U | 9-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UL 60–71 USA · ✗ USA (82%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 26 | 33 | 59 |
| USA | 25 | 31 | 56 |
1st half: UL 26, USA 25 (UL by 1). The model had USA by 6.2 and a total of 61.1 (actual 51).
Team stats
| UL | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-55 38% | Field goals | 23-53 43% |
| 15-42 36% | 3-pointers | 7-15 47% |
| 2-4 50% | Free throws | 3-10 30% |
| 27 5 off | Rebounds | 37 10 off |
| 14 | Assists | 9 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 8 | Blocks | 1 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| UL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Finister G | 37 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3-10 | 3-7 |
| De'vion Lavergne G | 34 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4-14 | 3-11 |
| Milan Mejia G | 32 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 4-9 |
| Todd Jones Jr. F | 29 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaxon Olvera G | 27 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 5-13 | 4-11 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Karris Bilal G | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Dariyus Woodson F | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jeremiah Evans F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mike Collins G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Sean Elkinton, Rahman Olajuwon, Logan Myers, Joshua Lewis, Jamyron Keller, Kyran Ratliff, Michael Mouton, Zeke Cook, Christian Landry
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen F | 37 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 3-10 | 3-8 |
| Chaze Harris G | 35 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 9-15 | 0-0 |
| Randy Brady F | 25 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 25 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-1 |
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| John Broom G | 24 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| JJ Wheat G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Stephen Williams F | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Maxwell Land, Peyton Law, Desmond Williams, Brian Hawthorne, Samuel Shoptaw
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSA -9.5
ModelUSA -10.7
Model edgeUSA +1.2
L UL covered
Total
Market129.5
Model130.4
Model edgeOver 0.9
L Under
Projected score
UL 59.9 · USA 70.5
UL 59 · USA 56
Win probability
USA 82%
1st half
Spread
USA -6.2
UL -1.0
Total
61.1
51 points
Projected score
UL 27.4 · USA 33.7
UL 26 · USA 25
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSA -9.5
no move
CloseUSA -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open126.5
▲ 3
Close129.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
UL +370 · USA -485
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USA -9.5 · unchangedmodel USA -10.5
model USA -10.5
Opened 126.5 · closed 129.5 · moved 3 upmodel 130.5
model 130.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| USA | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UL 5–4 USAUL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · USA has won the last 3 meetings · UL 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025-26 | USA 63 @ UL 58 | UL +3.5 | USA W |
| Feb 28, 2024-25 | UL 42 @ USA 65 | USA -12.5 | USA W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | USA 62 @ UL 58 | UL +6.5 | UL W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | USA 60 @ UL 80 | UL -7.5 | UL W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | UL 88 @ USA 79 | USA PK | UL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisiana
19 games played
Straight up
4-15
21% wins
Against the spread
8-11
42% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BALL | L 64-75 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 7 | vs SELA | W 58-52 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | U 110 |
| Nov 11 | vs TULN | L 62-66 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 14 | @ MCN | L 62-88 | +15.5 | L −10.5 | 134.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 18 | @ STAN | L 66-93 | +20.5 | L −6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | @ SCU | L 43-80 | +19.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 24 | @ UCD | L 56-77 | +9.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 28 | vs JKST | L 45-51 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 96 |
| Dec 3 | @ LAM | L 55-65 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 129.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCW | L 63-70 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 130.5 | O 133 |
| Dec 13 | @ LT | L 44-65 | +9.5 | L −11.5 | 126.5 | U 109 |
| Dec 18 | @ USM | L 54-62 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | @ ULM | W 76-62 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 136.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 28 | vs NORF | W 63-54 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 126.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 31 | vsUSA | L 58-63 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 3 | vsUSM | L 67-74 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vsULM | W 85-79 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 139.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 10 | vs TROY | L 70-90 | +9.5 | L −10.5 | 136.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @ TXST | L 54-59 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 133.5 | U 113 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BALL
BALLL 64-75
−6.5
7
vsSELA
SELAW 58-52
+2.5
11
vsTULN
TULNL 62-66
+1.5
14
@MCN
MCNL 62-88
−10.5
18
@STAN
STANL 66-93
−6.5
21
@SCU
SCUL 43-80
−17.5
24
@UCD
UCDL 56-77
−11.5
28
vsJKST
JKSTL 45-51
−11.5
3
@LAM
LAML 55-65
+0.5
6
vsUNCW
UNCWL 63-70
+5.5
13
@LT
LTL 44-65
−11.5
18
@USM
USML 54-62
+3.5
20
@ULM
ULMW 76-62
+12.5
28
vsNORF
NORFW 63-54
+5.5
31
vsUSA
USAL 58-63
−1.5
3
vsUSM
USML 67-74
−3.5
8
vsULM
ULMW 85-79
−1.5
10
vsTROY
TROYL 70-90
−10.5
14
@TXST
TXSTL 54-59
+3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 11avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BALL
BALLL 64-75
−2.5
7
vsSELA
SELAW 58-52
−25.5
11
vsTULN
TULNL 62-66
−7.5
14
@MCN
MCNL 62-88
+15.5
18
@STAN
STANL 66-93
+19.5
21
@SCU
SCUL 43-80
−17.5
24
@UCD
UCDL 56-77
−3.5
28
vsJKST
JKSTL 45-51
−40.5
3
@LAM
LAML 55-65
−9.5
6
vsUNCW
UNCWL 63-70
+2.5
13
@LT
LTL 44-65
−17.5
18
@USM
USML 54-62
−16.5
20
@ULM
ULMW 76-62
+1.5
28
vsNORF
NORFW 63-54
−9.5
31
vsUSA
USAL 58-63
−6.5
3
vsUSM
USML 67-74
+11.5
8
vsULM
ULMW 85-79
+24.5
10
vsTROY
TROYL 70-90
+23.5
14
@TXST
TXSTL 54-59
−20.5
over 7under 12avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Alabama
16 games played
Straight up
11-5
69% wins
Against the spread
8-8
50% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @ UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 5 | @ ETSU | L 65-91 | +7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 14 | vs UNT | L 57-58 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Dec 17 | @ULM | W 96-92 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 20 | @TXST | L 65-67 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @UL | W 63-58 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 3 | @TROY | L 49-59 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
| Jan 10 | vs GASO | W 87-71 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 15 | vs ARST | W 91-87 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
−18.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−2.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
−5.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
+1.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
+1.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−0.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+13.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+8.5
covered 8didn’t cover 8avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
5
@ETSU
ETSUL 65-91
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTL 57-58
−20.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 96-92
+39.5
20
@TXST
TXSTL 65-67
−4.5
31
@UL
ULW 63-58
−6.5
3
@TROY
TROYL 49-59
−40.5
10
vsGASO
GASOW 87-71
+9.5
15
vsARST
ARSTW 91-87
+23.5
over 9under 7avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisiana
4-15 overall · 2-5 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas St54–59
- Lvs Troy70–90
- Wvs UL Monroe85–79
- Lvs Southern Miss67–74
- Lvs South Alabama58–63
3 days since their last game.
South Alabama
11-5 overall · 4-2 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Arkansas St91–87
- Wvs GA Southern87–71
- L@ Troy49–59
- W@ Louisiana63–58
- L@ Texas St65–67
2 days since their last game.