Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game
Closing line
MSST -3.5✓ MISS covered by 4.5
MSST -3.5✓ MISS covered by 4.5Closing total147.5Under by 12.5
 MISS | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 10-7 | Record | 10-7 |
| 5-12 | ATS | 6-11 |
| 11-6 | O/U | 10-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MISS 75–77 MSST · ✗ MSST (58%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 27 | 41 | 68 |
| MSST | 30 | 37 | 67 |
1st half: MISS 27, MSST 30 (MSST by 3). The model had MSST by 1.2 and a total of 71.4 (actual 57).
Team stats
| MISS | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-71 41% | Field goals | 24-65 37% |
| 2-20 10% | 3-pointers | 5-27 19% |
| 8-10 80% | Free throws | 14-23 61% |
| 43 11 off | Rebounds | 46 14 off |
| 6 | Assists | 12 |
| 3 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilias Kamardine G | 32 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8-19 | 0-4 |
| Patton Pinkins G | 28 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Malik Dia F | 27 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| James Scott F | 16 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Eduardo Klafke G | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Storr G | 27 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 7-18 | 1-5 |
| Corey Chest F | 21 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Travis Perry G | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Kezza Giffa G | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Koren Johnson G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Tylis Jordan, Niko Bundalo, Max Smith, Zach Day, Hobert Grayson IV
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 36 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 3-16 | 2-8 |
| Jayden Epps G | 30 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 4-18 | 1-12 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 24 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Achor Achor F | 13 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 31 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 28 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 24 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
Did not play: King Grace, Brandon Walker, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Amier Ali, Dellquan Warren, Gai Chol
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -3.5
no move
CloseMSST -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open147.5
no move
Close147.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MISS +154 · MSST -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -3.5 · unchangedmodel MSST -2.5
model MSST -2.5
Opened 147.5 · unchangedmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSST -3.5 | MSST -2.3 | MISS +1.2 | W MISS covered |
| Total | 147.5 | 152.5 | Over 5.0 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MISS 75.1 · MSST 77.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSST -1.2 | MSST -3.0 |
| 1H total | 71.4 | 57 |
| 1H projected score | MISS 35.1 · MSST 36.3 | MISS 27 · MSST 30 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| MSST | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
MISS 2–6 MSSTMSST leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MSST has won the last 3 meetings · MISS 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | MSST 81 @ MISS 71 | MISS -2.5 | MSST W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | MISS 81 @ MSST 84 | MSST -5.5 | MISS W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | MISS 71 @ MSST 83 | MSST -6.5 | MSST W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | MSST 82 @ MISS 86 | MISS -0.5 | MISS W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | MSST 69 @ MISS 61 | MISS +3.5 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ole Miss
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
5-12
29% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-6
65% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs MEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs UTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIA | L 66-75 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | @ SJU | L 58-63 | +13.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs USM | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs AAMU | W 80-66 | -20.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 21 | vs NCSU | L 62-76 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALCN | W 79-43 | -28.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 3 | @ OU | L 70-86 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 7 | vs ARK | L 87-94 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | vs MIZ | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | @ UGA | W 97-95 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 192 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−10.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
+8.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−8.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
−6.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
+7.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
−3.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+5.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+12.5
covered 5didn’t cover 12avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
−30.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−0.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
+10.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−10.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
−26.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
+9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
+27.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+1.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+33.5
over 11under 6avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
6-11
35% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vsSELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vsUTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vsMEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vsOU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs ALA | L 82-97 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
−10.5
covered 6didn’t cover 11avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
13
vsALA
ALAL 82-97
+7.5
over 10under 7avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ole Miss
10-7 overall · 2-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Georgia97–95
- Wvs Missouri76–69
- Lvs Arkansas87–94
- L@ Oklahoma70–86
- Wvs Alcorn St79–43
3 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
10-7 overall · 2-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Alabama82–97
- L@ Kentucky68–92
- Wvs Oklahoma72–53
- W@ Texas101–98
- Wvs Alabama St94–56
4 days since their last game.