Pete Maravich Assembly Center · at LSU · Conference game
Closing line
UK -3.5✓ LSU covered by 2.5
UK -3.5✓ LSU covered by 2.5Closing total151.5Under by 2.5
| UK | This season | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | Record | 12-4 |
| 7-9 | ATS | 9-7 |
| 7-9 | O/U | 8-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UK 80–79 LSU · ✓ UK (55%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 22 | 53 | 75 |
| LSU | 38 | 36 | 74 |
1st half: UK 22, LSU 38 (LSU by 16). The model had UK by 0.9 and a total of 74.6 (actual 60).
Team stats
| UK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-56 45% | Field goals | 23-47 49% |
| 10-23 43% | 3-pointers | 9-19 47% |
| 15-22 68% | Free throws | 19-28 68% |
| 29 7 off | Rebounds | 32 7 off |
| 14 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otega Oweh G | 37 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 6-13 | 3-6 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 34 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 5-8 | 2-3 |
| Kam Williams G | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 21 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Collin Chandler G | 25 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Zach Tow, Jaland Lowe, Reece Potter, Trent Noah, Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne
| LSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Mackinnon G | 37 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 4-16 | 2-7 |
| Marquel Sutton F | 30 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 5-9 | 3-4 |
| Pablo Tamba F | 29 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Rashad King G | 27 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-1 |
| Mike Nwoko F | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Reece G | 30 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2-7 | 2-5 |
| Robert Miller III F | 23 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Mazi Mosley G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matt Gilhool, Jaden Bobbett, Marcus Vaughn, Ron Zipper, Jalen Reed, Dedan Thomas Jr., PJ Carter
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -4.5
1 → LSU
CloseUK -3.5
1 pt toward LSU
Total
Open153.5
▼ 2
Close151.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
UK -180 · LSU +150
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -4.5 · closed UK -3.5 · moved 1 toward LSUmodel UK -1.5
model UK -1.5
Opened 153.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 2 downmodel 159.5
model 159.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UK -3.5 | UK -1.3 | LSU +2.2 | W LSU covered |
| Total | 151.5 | 159.3 | Over 7.8 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | UK 80.3 · LSU 79 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UK -0.9 | LSU -16.0 |
| 1H total | 74.6 | 60 |
| 1H projected score | UK 37.7 · LSU 36.8 | UK 22 · LSU 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| LSU | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UK 3–2 LSUUK leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UK 1-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | LSU 64 @ UK 95 | UK -12.5 | UK W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | UK 74 @ LSU 75 | LSU +5.5 | LSU W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | LSU 71 @ UK 74 | UK -10.5 | LSU W |
| Feb 23, 2021-22 | LSU 66 @ UK 71 | UK -7.5 | LSU W |
| Jan 4, 2021-22 | UK 60 @ LSU 65 | LSU -2 | LSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kentucky
16 games played
Straight up
10-6
63% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-9
44% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs MSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
over 7under 9avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
LSU
16 games played
Straight up
12-4
75% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-8
50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs TAR | W 96-60 | -15.5 | W +20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 10 | vs NOLA | W 93-58 | -19.5 | W +15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 13 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -21.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | vs ALCN | W 107-81 | -32.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 21 | vs OMA | W 99-73 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | vs DRKE | W 71-62 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | vs DEP | W 96-63 | -5.5 | W +27.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | @ BC | W 78-69 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs TTU | L 58-82 | +5.5 | L −18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs SMU | W 89-77 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs SELA | W 78-65 | -24.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs PV | W 104-90 | -29.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 29 | vs USM | W 90-62 | -21.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 3 | @ TA&M | L 72-75 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | vs SC | L 68-78 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 10 | @ VAN | L 73-84 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+20.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
+15.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−4.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
−6.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+5.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−2.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+27.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
+1.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−18.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+10.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−11.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
−15.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
+6.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
+2.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
−17.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
+2.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+7.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
−11.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+20.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
+32.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+8.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−18.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+6.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
−2.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−14.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+7.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−1.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
+32.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
−2.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
−21.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
+0.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
−2.5
over 8under 8avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kentucky
10-6 overall · 1-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Mississippi St92–68
- Lvs Missouri68–73
- L@ Alabama74–89
- Wvs Bellarmine99–85
- Wvs St John's78–66
4 days since their last game.
LSU
12-4 overall · 0-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Vanderbilt73–84
- Lvs South Carolina68–78
- L@ Texas A&M72–75
- Wvs Southern Miss90–62
- Wvs Prairie View104–90
4 days since their last game.