When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2026 · Week 3 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 36% of games.
All 16 games
2026 · Week 3 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 3 |
PHI -3 | 42.5 | 7172734 | U | CHI Q1 | 7–27 |
2026 · Week 3 |
DEN -1.5 | 44.5 | 7163256 | Q4 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
26–30 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BAL -3 | 54.5 | 17304565 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
34–31 |
2026 · Week 3 |
NO -3.5 | 44.5 | 9294962 | Q3 | LV Q4 | 35–27 |
2026 · Week 3 |
SF -7.5 | 48.5 | 7233666 | Q4 | ARI Q4 Late cover flip |
30–36 |
2026 · Week 3 |
TB -1.5 | 42.5 | 17273039 | U | MIN Q1 | 23–16 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BUF -7 | 50.5 | 10202340 | U | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
16–24 |
2026 · Week 3 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 0131939 | U | CLE Q1 | 18–21 |
2026 · Week 3 |
DET -7 | 49.5 | 0172755 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over |
24–31 |
2026 · Week 3 |
HOU -1.5 | 42.5 | 3202036 | U | IND Q1 | 17–19 |
2026 · Week 3 |
KC -10 | 45.5 | 14212434 | U | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
24–10 |
2026 · Week 3 |
NYG -2.5 | 37.5 | 391219 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–12 |
2026 · Week 3 |
CIN -3.5 | 42.5 | 21344457 | Q3 | PIT Q1 | 27–30 |
2026 · Week 3 |
SEA -8.5 | 40.5 | 7274164 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 31–33 |
2026 · Week 3 |
JAX -3 | 46.5 | 0173141 | U | JAX Q2 | 6–35 |
2026 · Week 3 |
GB -4.5 | 43.5 | 14243149 | Q4 | ATL Q1 Late over |
35–14 |
PHI
CHI
LAR
DEN
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
LAC
BUF
CAR
CLE
NYJ
DET
HOU
IND
KC
MIA
TEN
NYG
CIN
PIT
SEA
WSH
NE
JAX
ATL
GBWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 6% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 31% 5
OT 0% 0
Push 13% 2
The team leading at halftime won 93% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 67% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.