When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2026 · Week 1 · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 9 overs, 22% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 16 games
2026 · Week 1 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 1 |
KC -2.5 | 42.5 | 14213441 | U | KC Q2 | 10–31 |
2026 · Week 1 |
DAL -3 | 47.5 | 7213548 | Q4 | NYG Q1 | 20–28 |
2026 · Week 1 |
LV -3 | 40.5 | 7234040 | U | LV Q1 | 13–27 |
2026 · Week 1 |
MIN -2.5 | 46.5 | 12293961 | Q4 | MIN Q4 | 22–39 |
2026 · Week 1 |
PHI -6 | 43.5 | 3232646 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
22–24 |
2026 · Week 1 |
LAC -8.5 | 47.5 | 14203040 | U | ARI Q1 | 26–14 |
2026 · Week 1 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 17344760 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 27–33 |
2026 · Week 1 |
DET -7 | 49.5 | 77354861 | OT | NO Q4 Late over |
30–31 |
2026 · Week 1 |
TEN -1.5 | 39.5 | 10132333 | U | NYJ Q1 | 23–10 |
2026 · Week 1 |
BAL -3 | 48.5 | 20444764 | Q4 | BAL Q1 | 41–23 |
2026 · Week 1 |
PIT -6.5 | 40.5 | 10202333 | U | PIT Q4 | 13–20 |
2026 · Week 1 |
CHI -3 | 47.5 | 21557696 | Q2 | CHI Q1 | 59–37 |
2026 · Week 1 |
JAX -8.5 | 40.5 | 14243744 | Q4 | JAX Q1 Late over |
10–34 |
2026 · Week 1 |
BUF -1.5 | 44.5 | 10454867 | Q2 | BUF Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
36–31 |
2026 · Week 1 |
LAR -3.5 | 47.5 | 3172434 | U | SF Q1 | 27–7 |
2026 · Week 1 |
SEA -3 | 44.5 | 071323 | U | Push | 10–13 |
DEN
KC
DAL
NYG
MIA
LV
GB
MIN
WSH
PHI
ARI
LAC
TB
CIN
NO
DET
NYJ
TEN
BAL
IND
ATL
PIT
CHI
CAR
CLE
JAX
BUF
HOU
SF
LAR
NE
SEAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 56% 9
Q2 13% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 25% 4
OT 0% 0
Push 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 75% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.