When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 4 · pick one to list those games
63% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 4 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 4 |
DEN -7.5 | 44.5 | 10242431 | U | DEN Q2 | 3–28 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MIA -2.5 | 43.5 | 3133448 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
21–27 |
2025 · Week 4 |
GB -6.5 | 46.5 | 729437480 | Q4 | DAL Q2 Lead lost |
40–40 |
2025 · Week 4 |
BAL -2.5 | 49.5 | 10304357 | Q4 | KC Q2 | 20–37 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LV -2.5 | 46.5 | 10233749 | Q4 | CHI Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 6232347 | U | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–27 |
2025 · Week 4 |
SF -3.5 | 46.5 | 3234047 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 26–21 |
2025 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 44.5 | 10274761 | Q3 | ATL Q1 | 27–34 |
2025 · Week 4 |
BUF -14.5 | 48.5 | 21243750 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–31 |
2025 · Week 4 |
DET -10.5 | 44.5 | 14273044 | U | DET Q4 | 10–34 |
2025 · Week 4 |
NE -3 | 42.5 | 13344155 | Q4 | NE Q2 | 13–42 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LAC -5.5 | 43.5 | 7233939 | U | NYG Q1 | 18–21 |
2025 · Week 4 |
PHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 17305156 | Q3 | PHI Q1 | 31–25 |
2025 · Week 4 |
HOU -7.5 | 39.5 | 36626 | U | HOU Q4 | 0–26 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MIN -2.5 | 41.5 | 10202745 | Q4 | PIT Q1 Late over |
21–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
SEA -1.5 | 43.5 | 10172343 | U | SEA Q1 | 23–20 |
CIN
DEN
NYJ
MIA
GB
DAL
BAL
KC
CHI
LV
IND
LAR
JAX
SF
WSH
ATL
NO
BUF
CLE
DET
CAR
NE
LAC
NYG
PHI
TB
TEN
HOU
MIN
PIT
SEA
ARIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 25% 4
Q3 0% 0
Q4 25% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 88% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 88% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.