When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 2 · pick one to list those games
63% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 2 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 2 |
LAC -3.5 | 46.5 | 13232629 | U | LAC Q1 | 20–9 |
2025 · Week 2 |
HOU -2.5 | 42.5 | 17242439 | U | TB Q2 | 20–19 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MIN -3.5 | 44.5 | 6151828 | U | ATL Q1 | 22–6 |
2025 · Week 2 |
PHI -1.5 | 46.5 | 7202337 | U | PHI Q3 | 20–17 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DEN -1.5 | 43.5 | 13415157 | Q3 | IND Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–29 |
2025 · Week 2 |
ARI -6.5 | 45.5 | 13233649 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
22–27 |
2025 · Week 2 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 14274858 | Q4 | CIN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–31 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DAL -4.5 | 44.5 | 623337477 | Q4 | NYG Q1 | 37–40 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DET -6.5 | 45.5 | 21425273 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 21–52 |
2025 · Week 2 |
LAR -5.5 | 40.5 | 7233652 | Q4 | LAR Q4 | 33–19 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MIA -2.5 | 42.5 | 12294360 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 33–27 |
2025 · Week 2 |
SF -2.5 | 40.5 | 6233347 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 26–21 |
2025 · Week 2 |
BUF -5.5 | 46.5 | 10232640 | U | BUF Q1 | 30–10 |
2025 · Week 2 |
PIT -3.5 | 40.5 | 13212848 | Q4 | SEA Q3 | 31–17 |
2025 · Week 2 |
BAL -12.5 | 46.5 | 3133058 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late over |
17–41 |
2025 · Week 2 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 7172045 | U | GB Q1 | 18–27 |
LAC
LV
TB
HOU
ATL
MIN
PHI
KC
DEN
IND
CAR
ARI
JAX
CIN
NYG
DAL
CHI
DET
LAR
TEN
NE
MIA
SF
NO
BUF
NYJ
SEA
PIT
CLE
BAL
WSH
GBWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 6% 1
Q3 13% 2
Q4 31% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 67% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.