When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 17 · pick one to list those games
44% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 57% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 17 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 17 |
LAR -7.5 | 48.5 | 7214151 | Q4 | ATL Q1 Late over |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SF -4.5 | 51.5 | 28496380 | Q3 | CHI Q4 Lead lost |
38–42 |
2025 · Week 17 |
BUF -3.5 | 45.5 | 7131325 | U | PHI Q1 | 13–12 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NYG -3 | 40.5 | 7203744 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over |
34–10 |
2025 · Week 17 |
CIN -7 | 53.5 | 7304451 | U | CIN Q2 | 14–37 |
2025 · Week 17 |
PIT -3.5 | 34.5 | 10161619 | U | CLE Q1 | 6–13 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NO -1.5 | 38.5 | 6304360 | Q3 | NO Q4 Late cover flip |
34–26 |
2025 · Week 17 |
JAX -4.5 | 48.5 | 3173440 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2025 · Week 17 |
TB -5.5 | 44.5 | 14242737 | U | MIA Q1 | 17–20 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NE -12.5 | 42.5 | 14384552 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 42–10 |
2025 · Week 17 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 362037 | U | SEA Q3 | 27–10 |
2025 · Week 17 |
GB -2.5 | 37.5 | 14415165 | Q2 | BAL Q1 | 41–24 |
2025 · Week 17 |
LAC -1.5 | 40.5 | 14172736 | U | HOU Q1 | 20–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DEN -13.5 | 37.5 | 3132333 | U | KC Q1 | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DET -7.5 | 45.5 | 7142033 | U | MIN Q1 | 10–23 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DAL -8.5 | 50.5 | 10344753 | Q4 | WSH Q3 Late over |
30–23 |
LAR
ATL
CHI
SF
PHI
BUF
NYG
LV
ARI
CIN
PIT
CLE
NO
TEN
JAX
IND
TB
MIA
NE
NYJ
SEA
CAR
BAL
GB
HOU
LAC
DEN
KC
DET
MIN
DAL
WSHWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 63% 10
Q2 6% 1
Q3 13% 2
Q4 19% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 79% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 73% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.