When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 15 · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 9 overs, 11% had cashed by halftime and 44% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 15 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 15 |
PIT -3 | 43.5 | 0102443 | U | PIT Q2 | 15–28 |
2025 · Week 15 |
DAL -5.5 | 47.5 | 14344760 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 34–26 |
2025 · Week 15 |
GB -1.5 | 42.5 | 3305060 | Q3 | DEN Q3 | 26–34 |
2025 · Week 15 |
LAR -5.5 | 54.5 | 14415875 | Q3 | LAR Q3 | 34–41 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 7172737 | U | NO Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SF -12.5 | 44.5 | 10274161 | Q4 | SF Q3 Late cover flip |
24–37 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SEA -12.5 | 41.5 | 6192234 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
16–18 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CHI -7.5 | 38.5 | 14143134 | U | CHI Q1 | 3–31 |
2025 · Week 15 |
BAL -2.5 | 51.5 | 0141724 | U | BAL Q2 | 24–0 |
2025 · Week 15 |
KC -5.5 | 41.5 | 10232929 | U | LAC Q1 | 16–13 |
2025 · Week 15 |
BUF -2.5 | 49.5 | 14314566 | Q4 | BUF Q4 | 35–31 |
2025 · Week 15 |
NYG -3 | 45.5 | 3293650 | Q4 | WSH Q1 Late over |
29–21 |
2025 · Week 15 |
PHI -12.5 | 36.5 | 7172431 | U | PHI Q2 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 15 |
JAX -13.5 | 40.5 | 21415468 | Q2 | JAX Q2 | 20–48 |
2025 · Week 15 |
HOU -10.5 | 42.5 | 17304460 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 20–40 |
2025 · Week 15 |
TB -6 | 43.5 | 7273457 | Q4 | ATL Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–28 |
MIA
PIT
MIN
DAL
GB
DEN
DET
LAR
CAR
NO
TEN
SF
IND
SEA
CLE
CHI
BAL
CIN
LAC
KC
BUF
NE
WSH
NYG
LV
PHI
NYJ
JAX
ARI
HOU
ATL
TBWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 6
Q2 25% 4
Q3 19% 3
Q4 19% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 60% and covered 67% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.