When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 1 · pick one to list those games
25% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 1 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 1 |
CHI -1.5 | 43.5 | 7162351 | Q4 | MIN Q4 Late over |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 1 |
BAL -1.5 | 51.5 | 10335381 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
40–41 |
2025 · Week 1 |
GB -1.5 | 48.5 | 10202340 | U | GB Q1 | 13–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
LAR -3.5 | 43.5 | 3162323 | U | LAR Q3 | 9–14 |
2025 · Week 1 |
DEN -9.5 | 43.5 | 6192532 | U | TEN Q1 | 12–20 |
2025 · Week 1 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 7171730 | U | SF Q4 Late cover flip |
17–13 |
2025 · Week 1 |
ATL -1.5 | 47.5 | 7203043 | U | TB Q2 | 23–20 |
2025 · Week 1 |
CIN -5.5 | 47.5 | 7243333 | U | CLE Q2 | 17–16 |
2025 · Week 1 |
IND -1.5 | 47.5 | 3202341 | U | IND Q1 | 8–33 |
2025 · Week 1 |
NE -2.5 | 44.5 | 14172733 | U | LV Q3 | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 1 |
ARI -5.5 | 44.5 | 3273033 | U | ARI Q2 | 20–13 |
2025 · Week 1 |
PIT -2.5 | 38.5 | 16364366 | Q3 | NYJ Q1 Lead lost |
34–32 |
2025 · Week 1 |
WSH -5.5 | 45.5 | 7172027 | U | WSH Q1 | 6–21 |
2025 · Week 1 |
JAX -4.5 | 44.5 | 6232336 | U | JAX Q2 | 10–26 |
2025 · Week 1 |
KC -3.5 | 47.5 | 7193248 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
21–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
PHI -7.5 | 47.5 | 14414444 | U | DAL Q1 | 20–24 |
MIN
CHI
BAL
BUF
DET
GB
HOU
LAR
TEN
DEN
SF
SEA
TB
ATL
CIN
CLE
MIA
IND
LV
NE
ARI
NO
PIT
NYJ
NYG
WSH
CAR
JAX
KC
LAC
DAL
PHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 7
Q2 25% 4
Q3 13% 2
Q4 19% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 60% and covered 47% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 63% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.