When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Washington Commanders · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Washington Commanders · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
PHI -3 | 38.5 | 0172741 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late over |
24–17 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DAL -8.5 | 50.5 | 10344753 | Q4 | WSH Q3 Late over |
30–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
PHI -7 | 43.5 | 10172447 | Q4 | PHI Q4 Late over |
29–18 |
2025 · Week 15 |
NYG -3 | 45.5 | 3293650 | Q4 | WSH Q1 Late over |
29–21 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MIN -1.5 | 43.5 | 7142431 | U | MIN Q1 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 43.5 | 320344053 | OT | WSH Q1 Late over |
27–26 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MIA -2.5 | 46.5 | 612192629 | U | MIA OT Late cover flip |
13–16 |
2025 · Week 10 |
DET -7.5 | 48.5 | 17355166 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 44–22 |
2025 · Week 9 |
SEA -2.5 | 47.5 | 7384552 | Q4 | SEA Q1 | 38–14 |
2025 · Week 8 |
KC -11.5 | 48.5 | 0142835 | U | KC Q3 | 7–28 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DAL -2.5 | 54.5 | 25426366 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 6 |
WSH -5.5 | 48.5 | 6203349 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2025 · Week 5 |
LAC -3.5 | 48.5 | 10203037 | U | WSH Q2 | 27–10 |
2025 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 44.5 | 10274761 | Q3 | ATL Q1 | 27–34 |
2025 · Week 3 |
WSH -2.5 | 44.5 | 10304465 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 24–41 |
2025 · Week 2 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 7172045 | U | GB Q1 | 18–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
WSH -5.5 | 45.5 | 7172027 | U | WSH Q1 | 6–21 |
WSH
PHI
DAL
NYG
MIN
DEN
MIA
DET
SEA
KC
CHI
LAC
ATL
LV
GBWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 65% 11
Q2 6% 1
Q3 12% 2
Q4 12% 2
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 93% and covered 79% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 71% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.