When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
TB -3 | 42.5 | 10202030 | U | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
14–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
TB -5.5 | 44.5 | 14242737 | U | MIA Q1 | 17–20 |
2025 · Week 16 |
TB -3 | 44.5 | 10233743 | U | CAR Q2 | 20–23 |
2025 · Week 15 |
TB -6 | 43.5 | 7273457 | Q4 | ATL Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–28 |
2025 · Week 14 |
TB -7.5 | 41.5 | 14173444 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
24–20 |
2025 · Week 13 |
TB -4.5 | 45.5 | 0132737 | U | ARI Q4 Late cover flip |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
LAR -7.5 | 50.5 | 14383841 | U | LAR Q1 | 7–34 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10415776 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
32–44 |
2025 · Week 10 |
TB -2.5 | 48.5 | 14243751 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
28–23 |
2025 · Week 8 |
TB -3.5 | 45.5 | 0102026 | U | TB Q2 | 23–3 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DET -6.5 | 54.5 | 7173033 | U | DET Q1 | 9–24 |
2025 · Week 6 |
TB -3.5 | 46.5 | 10364649 | Q4 | TB Q1 Late over |
19–30 |
2025 · Week 5 |
SEA -3.5 | 45.5 | 3204973 | Q3 | TB Q1 | 38–35 |
2025 · Week 4 |
PHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 17305156 | Q3 | PHI Q1 | 31–25 |
2025 · Week 3 |
TB -6.5 | 42.5 | 6262956 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
27–29 |
2025 · Week 2 |
HOU -2.5 | 42.5 | 17242439 | U | TB Q2 | 20–19 |
2025 · Week 1 |
ATL -1.5 | 47.5 | 7203043 | U | TB Q2 | 23–20 |
CAR
TB
MIA
ATL
NO
ARI
LAR
BUF
NE
DET
SF
SEA
PHI
NYJ
HOUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 8
Q2 24% 4
Q3 0% 0
Q4 29% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 94% and covered 75% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 94% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.