When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · New Orleans Saints · pick one to list those games
31% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 13% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · New Orleans Saints · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
ATL -3.5 | 43.5 | 7172336 | U | NO Q2 Late cover flip |
17–19 |
2025 · Week 17 |
NO -1.5 | 38.5 | 6304360 | Q3 | NO Q4 Late cover flip |
34–26 |
2025 · Week 16 |
NO -7 | 39.5 | 6152235 | U | NO Q3 | 6–29 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 7172737 | U | NO Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 14 |
TB -7.5 | 41.5 | 14173444 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
24–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NO -1.5 | 40.5 | 3232334 | U | ATL Q1 | 24–10 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CAR -5.5 | 38.5 | 10171724 | U | NO Q1 | 17–7 |
2025 · Week 9 |
LAR -14.5 | 45.5 | 7303744 | U | LAR Q3 | 10–34 |
2025 · Week 8 |
TB -3.5 | 45.5 | 0102026 | U | TB Q2 | 23–3 |
2025 · Week 7 |
CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 3273740 | U | CHI Q2 | 14–26 |
2025 · Week 6 |
NE -3.5 | 46.5 | 20384144 | U | NE Q1 | 25–19 |
2025 · Week 5 |
NO -2.5 | 42.5 | 10303340 | U | NO Q3 | 14–26 |
2025 · Week 4 |
BUF -14.5 | 48.5 | 21243750 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–31 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SEA -6.5 | 41.5 | 21445057 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 13–44 |
2025 · Week 2 |
SF -2.5 | 40.5 | 6233347 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 26–21 |
2025 · Week 1 |
ARI -5.5 | 44.5 | 3273033 | U | ARI Q2 | 20–13 |
NO
ATL
TEN
NYJ
CAR
TB
LAR
CHI
NE
NYG
BUF
SEA
SF
ARIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 7
Q2 25% 4
Q3 19% 3
Q4 13% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 81% and covered 69% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 73% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.