When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Miami Dolphins · pick one to list those games
63% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Miami Dolphins · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
NE -14.5 | 43.5 | 14274148 | Q4 | NE Q3 | 10–38 |
2025 · Week 17 |
TB -5.5 | 44.5 | 14242737 | U | MIA Q1 | 17–20 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CIN -3.5 | 48.5 | 14315266 | Q3 | CIN Q3 | 45–21 |
2025 · Week 15 |
PIT -3 | 43.5 | 0102443 | U | PIT Q2 | 15–28 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MIA -2.5 | 41.5 | 28313144 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
34–10 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MIA -2.5 | 46.5 | 612192629 | U | MIA OT Late cover flip |
13–16 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BUF -8.5 | 50.5 | 7161643 | U | MIA Q1 | 13–30 |
2025 · Week 9 |
BAL -7.5 | 51.5 | 10203434 | U | BAL Q2 | 28–6 |
2025 · Week 8 |
ATL -6.5 | 43.5 | 7202744 | Q4 | MIA Q1 | 34–10 |
2025 · Week 7 |
CLE -2.5 | 35.5 | 3233037 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 6–31 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LAC -3.5 | 45.5 | 13223656 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip |
29–27 |
2025 · Week 5 |
MIA -1.5 | 44.5 | 3273051 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late over |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MIA -2.5 | 43.5 | 3133448 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
21–27 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BUF -11.5 | 50.5 | 14283552 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
21–31 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MIA -2.5 | 42.5 | 12294360 | Q3 | NE Q1 | 33–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
IND -1.5 | 47.5 | 3202341 | U | IND Q1 | 8–33 |
MIA
NE
TB
CIN
PIT
NYJ
WSH
BUF
BAL
ATL
CLE
LAC
CAR
INDWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 56% 9
Q2 13% 2
Q3 13% 2
Q4 13% 2
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 93% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.