When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Detroit Lions · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 6% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Detroit Lions · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
CHI -3 | 51.5 | 3131635 | U | DET Q1 | 19–16 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DET -7.5 | 45.5 | 7142033 | U | MIN Q1 | 10–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DET -7.5 | 52.5 | 3202253 | Q4 | PIT Q1 Late over |
29–24 |
2025 · Week 15 |
LAR -5.5 | 54.5 | 14415875 | Q3 | LAR Q3 | 34–41 |
2025 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 55.5 | 13294674 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 30–44 |
2025 · Week 12 |
DET -14.5 | 50.5 | 1037375461 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
27–34 |
2025 · Week 11 |
PHI -2.5 | 45.5 | 3191925 | U | PHI Q1 | 9–16 |
2025 · Week 10 |
DET -7.5 | 48.5 | 17355166 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 44–22 |
2025 · Week 9 |
DET -9.5 | 47.5 | 21314151 | Q4 | MIN Q1 Late over |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DET -6.5 | 54.5 | 7173033 | U | DET Q1 | 9–24 |
2025 · Week 6 |
KC -2.5 | 51.5 | 9233047 | U | KC Q1 | 17–30 |
2025 · Week 5 |
DET -9.5 | 48.5 | 7173161 | Q4 | DET Q2 | 37–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
DET -10.5 | 44.5 | 14273044 | U | DET Q4 | 10–34 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BAL -4.5 | 53.5 | 14284268 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 38–30 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DET -6.5 | 45.5 | 21425273 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 21–52 |
2025 · Week 1 |
GB -1.5 | 48.5 | 10202340 | U | GB Q1 | 13–27 |
DET
CHI
MIN
PIT
LAR
DAL
NYG
PHI
WSH
TB
KC
CIN
CLE
BAL
GBWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 81% 13
Q2 6% 1
Q3 6% 1
Q4 6% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 92% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 100% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 7 | 14% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.