When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2025 · Atlanta Falcons · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 11% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2025 · Atlanta Falcons · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
ATL -3.5 | 43.5 | 7172336 | U | NO Q2 Late cover flip |
17–19 |
2025 · Week 17 |
LAR -7.5 | 48.5 | 7214151 | Q4 | ATL Q1 Late over |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 16 |
ATL -2.5 | 48.5 | 13323545 | U | ATL Q3 | 26–19 |
2025 · Week 15 |
TB -6 | 43.5 | 7273457 | Q4 | ATL Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
29–28 |
2025 · Week 14 |
SEA -7 | 44.5 | 6122946 | Q4 | SEA Q3 | 37–9 |
2025 · Week 13 |
ATL -3 | 38.5 | 0143151 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
24–27 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NO -1.5 | 40.5 | 3232334 | U | ATL Q1 | 24–10 |
2025 · Week 11 |
ATL -4.5 | 41.5 | 1431405457 | Q4 | CAR Q3 Late over Lead lost |
30–27 |
2025 · Week 10 |
IND -5.5 | 48.5 | 2027305056 | Q4 | IND OT Late cover flip Late over |
25–31 |
2025 · Week 9 |
NE -5.5 | 45.5 | 14353847 | Q4 | ATL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–24 |
2025 · Week 8 |
ATL -6.5 | 43.5 | 7202744 | Q4 | MIA Q1 | 34–10 |
2025 · Week 7 |
ATL -1.5 | 46.5 | 0132330 | U | SF Q1 | 10–20 |
2025 · Week 6 |
BUF -3.5 | 49.5 | 21283538 | U | ATL Q1 | 14–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 44.5 | 10274761 | Q3 | ATL Q1 | 27–34 |
2025 · Week 3 |
ATL -4.5 | 43.5 | 7102030 | U | CAR Q1 | 0–30 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MIN -3.5 | 44.5 | 6151828 | U | ATL Q1 | 22–6 |
2025 · Week 1 |
ATL -1.5 | 47.5 | 7203043 | U | TB Q2 | 23–20 |
NO
ATL
LAR
ARI
TB
SEA
NYJ
CAR
IND
NE
MIA
SF
BUF
WSH
MINWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 8
Q2 12% 2
Q3 18% 3
Q4 18% 3
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 69% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 76% and covered 65% of 17 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.