When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 8 · pick one to list those games
75% went over. Of the 12 overs, 8% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 6% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 8 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 8 |
PIT -6.5 | 37.5 | 9182544 | Q4 | PIT Q3 | 18–26 |
2024 · Week 8 |
SF -5.5 | 47.5 | 3163754 | Q4 | SF Q3 Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 8 |
DEN -12.5 | 40.5 | 7283542 | Q4 | DEN Q2 Late over |
14–28 |
2024 · Week 8 |
KC -8.5 | 42.5 | 14273047 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 8 |
WSH -1.5 | 46.5 | 691933 | U | WSH Q1 | 15–18 |
2024 · Week 8 |
LAC -7.5 | 41.5 | 2142434 | U | LAC Q3 | 8–26 |
2024 · Week 8 |
BUF -3.5 | 45.5 | 7172741 | U | BUF Q1 | 31–10 |
2024 · Week 8 |
CIN -2.5 | 47.5 | 7204154 | Q4 | PHI Q2 Late over |
37–17 |
2024 · Week 8 |
BAL -7.5 | 44.5 | 3163753 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over |
24–29 |
2024 · Week 8 |
DET -12.5 | 46.5 | 21496666 | Q2 | DET Q2 | 14–52 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIA -4.5 | 46.5 | 10203855 | Q4 | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 8 |
NYJ -7.5 | 41.5 | 13203047 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
22–25 |
2024 · Week 8 |
ATL -0.5 | 47.5 | 14414857 | Q3 | ATL Q2 | 31–26 |
2024 · Week 8 |
GB -3.5 | 49.5 | 0233757 | Q4 | JAX Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
30–27 |
2024 · Week 8 |
HOU -4.5 | 45.5 | 13273343 | U | IND Q4 | 20–23 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIN -2.5 | 46.5 | 21283850 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 20–30 |
NYG
PIT
DAL
SF
CAR
DEN
KC
LV
CHI
WSH
NO
LAC
BUF
SEA
PHI
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
DET
ARI
MIA
NYJ
NE
ATL
TB
GB
JAX
IND
HOU
MIN
LARWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 6
Q2 31% 5
Q3 25% 4
Q4 6% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 69% and covered 46% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 69% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 6 | 83% 5 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.