When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 4 · pick one to list those games
63% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 6% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 4 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 4 |
DET -4.5 | 47.5 | 7285571 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 29–42 |
2024 · Week 4 |
MIA -2.5 | 37.5 | 0122543 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over |
31–12 |
2024 · Week 4 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 10243845 | U | BAL Q1 | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CLE -2.5 | 38.5 | 10203036 | U | LV Q2 | 16–20 |
2024 · Week 4 |
KC -7.5 | 41.5 | 10172027 | U | LAC Q1 | 17–10 |
2024 · Week 4 |
ARI -3.5 | 48.5 | 14244156 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 42–14 |
2024 · Week 4 |
SF -10.5 | 41.5 | 6233743 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
13–30 |
2024 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 42.5 | 14313750 | Q4 | NO Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CHI -3.5 | 40.5 | 3162642 | Q4 | CHI Q2 | 18–24 |
2024 · Week 4 |
GB -2.5 | 44.5 | 14353560 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 31–29 |
2024 · Week 4 |
PIT -2.5 | 40.5 | 14202751 | Q4 | IND Q1 | 24–27 |
2024 · Week 4 |
NYJ -8.5 | 39.5 | 061319 | U | DEN Q1 | 10–9 |
2024 · Week 4 |
PHI -0.5 | 43.5 | 14314649 | Q3 | TB Q1 | 16–33 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CIN -5.5 | 47.5 | 7355258 | Q3 | CIN Q1 | 34–24 |
2024 · Week 4 |
HOU -5.5 | 46.5 | 17303744 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2024 · Week 4 |
DAL -5.5 | 44.5 | 10232935 | U | NYG Q1 | 20–15 |
SEA
DET
TEN
MIA
BUF
BAL
CLE
LV
KC
LAC
WSH
ARI
NE
SF
NO
ATL
LAR
CHI
MIN
GB
PIT
IND
DEN
NYJ
PHI
TB
CIN
CAR
JAX
HOU
DAL
NYGWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 75% 12
Q2 19% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 6% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 87% and covered 73% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 87% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 5 | 40% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.