When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 3 · pick one to list those games
38% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 3 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 3 |
CIN -7.5 | 46.5 | 14344871 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 38–33 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BUF -4.5 | 46.5 | 13374757 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 10–47 |
2024 · Week 3 |
KC -3.5 | 46.5 | 7273639 | U | KC Q3 | 22–17 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BAL -1.5 | 47.5 | 17273453 | Q4 | BAL Q1 Late over |
28–25 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 14213551 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 3 |
DET -2.5 | 51.5 | 14303033 | U | DET Q2 | 20–13 |
2024 · Week 3 |
LV -5.5 | 40.5 | 14283458 | Q4 | CAR Q1 | 36–22 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SEA -4.5 | 41.5 | 20202027 | U | SEA Q1 | 3–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
CLE -6.5 | 37.5 | 14282836 | U | NYG Q1 | 21–15 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 24274144 | Q3 | GB Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 3 |
IND -2.5 | 43.5 | 071737 | U | IND Q2 | 16–21 |
2024 · Week 3 |
HOU -2 | 46.5 | 14142841 | U | MIN Q1 | 7–34 |
2024 · Week 3 |
NO -2.5 | 48.5 | 33327 | U | PHI Q4 | 15–12 |
2024 · Week 3 |
PIT -2.5 | 35.5 | 7172030 | U | PIT Q4 | 10–20 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TB -5.5 | 40.5 | 14272733 | U | DEN Q1 | 26–7 |
2024 · Week 3 |
NYJ -6.5 | 39.5 | 7172427 | U | NYJ Q1 | 3–24 |
WSH
CIN
JAX
BUF
KC
ATL
BAL
DAL
SF
LAR
DET
ARI
CAR
LV
MIA
SEA
NYG
CLE
GB
TEN
CHI
IND
HOU
MIN
PHI
NO
LAC
PIT
DEN
TB
NE
NYJWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 63% 10
Q2 13% 2
Q3 6% 1
Q4 19% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 75% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 87% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.