When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 18 · pick one to list those games
69% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 27% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 18 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
DET -2.5 | 56.5 | 7162640 | U | DET Q1 | 9–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
DEN -11.5 | 40.5 | 14243138 | U | DEN Q1 | 0–38 |
2024 · Week 18 |
LAC -6.5 | 41.5 | 6273354 | Q4 | LAC Q2 Late over |
34–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 18 |
NYJ -2.5 | 39.5 | 6212452 | Q4 | NYJ Q2 | 20–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ARI -4.5 | 42.5 | 6375071 | Q3 | ARI Q4 | 24–47 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ATL -7.5 | 48.5 | 641557682 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 18 |
WSH -7.5 | 43.5 | 391942 | U | DAL Q1 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2024 · Week 18 |
GB -10.5 | 41.5 | 10272746 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
24–22 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 7192237 | Q4 | HOU Q1 Late over |
23–14 |
2024 · Week 18 |
IND -3.5 | 45.5 | 1433334649 | Q4 | JAX Q4 Late over |
23–26 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BUF -3.5 | 36.5 | 7243339 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
16–23 |
2024 · Week 18 |
PHI -2.5 | 35.5 | 7101333 | U | PHI Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TB -14.5 | 44.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | NO Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2024 · Week 18 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 10202336 | U | PIT Q4 Late cover flip |
19–17 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BAL -20.5 | 41.5 | 7172445 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
10–35 |
MIN
DET
KC
DEN
LAC
LV
SEA
LAR
MIA
NYJ
SF
ARI
CAR
ATL
WSH
DAL
CHI
GB
HOU
TEN
JAX
IND
BUF
NE
NYG
PHI
NO
TB
CIN
PIT
CLE
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 56% 9
Q2 13% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 31% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 81% and covered 75% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 94% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.