When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 17 · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 44% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 17 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 17 |
DET -3.5 | 50.5 | 13345974 | Q3 | DET Q4 | 40–34 |
2024 · Week 17 |
WSH -3.5 | 46.5 | 1424314854 | Q4 | WSH OT Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 17 |
GB -0.5 | 48.5 | 3163752 | Q4 | MIN Q2 Late over |
25–27 |
2024 · Week 17 |
MIA -3.5 | 32.5 | 391623 | U | MIA Q3 | 20–3 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BUF -10.5 | 44.5 | 7123354 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 14–40 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LV -2.5 | 37.5 | 3232635 | U | LV Q1 | 25–10 |
2024 · Week 17 |
IND -7.5 | 40.5 | 10344878 | Q3 | NYG Q1 | 33–45 |
2024 · Week 17 |
PHI -7.5 | 37.5 | 14314148 | Q3 | PHI Q2 | 7–41 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TB -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415562 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 14–48 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | 3162333 | U | JAX Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 0101622 | U | ARI Q3 | 9–13 |
2024 · Week 17 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 310204854 | OT | CIN OT Late cover flip Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 17 |
LAC -5.5 | 41.5 | 7273747 | Q4 | LAC Q1 | 40–7 |
2024 · Week 17 |
SEA -4.5 | 42.5 | 3999 | U | CHI Q1 | 6–3 |
2024 · Week 17 |
BAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 10193333 | U | BAL Q1 | 31–2 |
2024 · Week 17 |
KC -1.5 | 45.5 | 13202639 | U | KC Q1 | 29–10 |
DET
SF
ATL
WSH
GB
MIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
BUF
LV
NO
IND
NYG
DAL
PHI
CAR
TB
TEN
JAX
ARI
LAR
DEN
CIN
LAC
NE
SEA
CHI
BAL
HOU
KC
PITWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 7
Q2 25% 4
Q3 13% 2
Q4 6% 1
OT 13% 2
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 75% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 80% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.