When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 15 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 15 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 15 |
ATL -5.5 | 43.5 | 7121524 | U | ATL Q1 | 15–9 |
2024 · Week 15 |
MIN -6.5 | 43.5 | 10132342 | U | MIN Q1 | 12–30 |
2024 · Week 15 |
GB -2.5 | 48.5 | 14232943 | U | GB Q1 | 30–13 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DEN -3.5 | 43.5 | 7202344 | Q4 | DEN Q4 | 13–31 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DET -2.5 | 55.5 | 14355690 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 48–42 |
2024 · Week 15 |
PHI -5.5 | 43.5 | 13303340 | U | PHI Q3 | 13–27 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ARI -5.5 | 46.5 | 10161947 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over |
17–30 |
2024 · Week 15 |
LAC -3 | 45.5 | 14304757 | Q3 | TB Q3 | 40–17 |
2024 · Week 15 |
KC -3.5 | 41.5 | 7142828 | U | KC Q1 | 21–7 |
2024 · Week 15 |
CIN -6.5 | 46.5 | 21384564 | Q4 | CIN Q2 | 37–27 |
2024 · Week 15 |
WSH -7.5 | 44.5 | 7142439 | U | NO Q4 | 20–19 |
2024 · Week 15 |
BAL -16.5 | 43.5 | 7283549 | Q4 | BAL Q3 | 35–14 |
2024 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 0173144 | Q4 | DAL Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 15 |
NYJ -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203357 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
32–25 |
2024 · Week 15 |
HOU -2.5 | 46.5 | 3193232 | U | HOU Q1 | 12–20 |
2024 · Week 15 |
SF -2.5 | 48.5 | 36918 | U | LAR Q4 | 12–6 |
ATL
LV
CHI
MIN
GB
SEA
IND
DEN
BUF
DET
PIT
PHI
NE
ARI
TB
LAC
KC
CLE
CIN
TEN
WSH
NO
BAL
NYG
DAL
CAR
NYJ
JAX
MIA
HOU
LAR
SFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 6% 1
Q3 19% 3
Q4 25% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 73% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.