When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 1 · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 1 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 1 |
SF -3.5 | 43.5 | 10233951 | Q4 | SF Q2 Late over |
19–32 |
2024 · Week 1 |
DET -5.5 | 53.5 | 313274046 | U | DET OT Late cover flip |
20–26 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CLE -2 | 42.5 | 10234050 | Q4 | DAL Q1 | 33–17 |
2024 · Week 1 |
TB -3.5 | 41.5 | 6233757 | Q4 | TB Q1 | 20–37 |
2024 · Week 1 |
LAC -3 | 40.5 | 10131632 | U | LAC Q4 | 10–22 |
2024 · Week 1 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
20–26 |
2024 · Week 1 |
ATL -4.5 | 43.5 | 6192528 | U | PIT Q1 | 18–10 |
2024 · Week 1 |
BUF -6.5 | 45.5 | 7274162 | Q4 | ARI Q4 | 28–34 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CHI -4.5 | 42.5 | 7202741 | U | CHI Q4 | 17–24 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CIN -7.5 | 40.5 | 0102026 | U | NE Q1 | 16–10 |
2024 · Week 1 |
HOU -3.5 | 48.5 | 13192856 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
29–27 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MIA -3.5 | 49.5 | 7243137 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2024 · Week 1 |
NO -3.5 | 41.5 | 17334757 | Q3 | NO Q1 | 10–47 |
2024 · Week 1 |
NYG -2.5 | 40.5 | 10173434 | U | MIN Q1 | 28–6 |
2024 · Week 1 |
PHI -1.5 | 49.5 | 6365763 | Q3 | PHI Q3 | 29–34 |
2024 · Week 1 |
KC -2.5 | 45.5 | 14233047 | Q4 | KC Q2 Late over |
20–27 |
NYJ
SF
LAR
DET
DAL
CLE
WSH
TB
LV
LAC
DEN
SEA
PIT
ATL
ARI
BUF
TEN
CHI
NE
CIN
HOU
IND
JAX
MIA
CAR
NO
MIN
NYG
GB
PHI
BAL
KCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 13% 2
Q3 13% 2
Q4 19% 3
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 56% and covered 69% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 75% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.