When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Pittsburgh Steelers · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 29% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Pittsburgh Steelers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
BAL -9.5 | 44.5 | 7214242 | U | BAL Q2 | 14–28 |
2024 · Week 18 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 10202336 | U | PIT Q4 Late cover flip |
19–17 |
2024 · Week 17 |
KC -1.5 | 45.5 | 13202639 | U | KC Q1 | 29–10 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BAL -7.5 | 45.5 | 7274151 | Q4 | BAL Q4 | 17–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
PHI -5.5 | 43.5 | 13303340 | U | PHI Q3 | 13–27 |
2024 · Week 14 |
PIT -6.5 | 42.5 | 10203441 | U | PIT Q3 | 14–27 |
2024 · Week 13 |
CIN -3.5 | 46.5 | 21485882 | Q2 | PIT Q2 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 0131643 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Lead lost |
19–24 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BAL -3.5 | 49.5 | 3162534 | U | PIT Q1 | 16–18 |
2024 · Week 10 |
WSH -1.5 | 45.5 | 14314855 | Q3 | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 8 |
PIT -6.5 | 37.5 | 9182544 | Q4 | PIT Q3 | 18–26 |
2024 · Week 7 |
NYJ -2.5 | 40.5 | 10283852 | Q4 | PIT Q2 | 15–37 |
2024 · Week 6 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 10192945 | Q4 | PIT Q2 Late over |
32–13 |
2024 · Week 5 |
PIT -2.5 | 44.5 | 691637 | U | DAL Q4 | 20–17 |
2024 · Week 4 |
PIT -2.5 | 40.5 | 14202751 | Q4 | IND Q1 | 24–27 |
2024 · Week 3 |
PIT -2.5 | 35.5 | 7172030 | U | PIT Q4 | 10–20 |
2024 · Week 1 |
ATL -4.5 | 43.5 | 6192528 | U | PIT Q1 | 18–10 |
PIT
BAL
CIN
KC
PHI
CLE
WSH
NYG
NYJ
LV
DAL
IND
LAC
ATLWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 29% 5
Q2 24% 4
Q3 18% 3
Q4 29% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 69% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.