When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Miami Dolphins · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 24% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Miami Dolphins · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
NYJ -2.5 | 39.5 | 6212452 | Q4 | NYJ Q2 | 20–32 |
2024 · Week 17 |
MIA -3.5 | 32.5 | 391623 | U | MIA Q3 | 20–3 |
2024 · Week 16 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 3232946 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
17–29 |
2024 · Week 15 |
HOU -2.5 | 46.5 | 3193232 | U | HOU Q1 | 12–20 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIA -6.5 | 45.5 | 928385258 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 | 26–32 |
2024 · Week 13 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 14273847 | U | GB Q1 | 17–30 |
2024 · Week 12 |
MIA -7.5 | 45.5 | 0243149 | Q4 | MIA Q2 | 15–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
MIA -8.5 | 43.5 | 10162953 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late over |
19–34 |
2024 · Week 10 |
LAR -2.5 | 50.5 | 7162338 | U | MIA Q1 | 23–15 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BUF -6.5 | 49.5 | 6163357 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
27–30 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIA -4.5 | 46.5 | 10203855 | Q4 | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 7132026 | U | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
10–16 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 4 |
MIA -2.5 | 37.5 | 0122543 | Q4 | TEN Q1 Late over |
31–12 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SEA -4.5 | 41.5 | 20202027 | U | SEA Q1 | 3–24 |
2024 · Week 2 |
MIA -2.5 | 49.5 | 14344141 | U | BUF Q1 | 31–10 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MIA -3.5 | 49.5 | 7243137 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
17–20 |
MIA
NYJ
CLE
SF
HOU
GB
NE
LV
LAR
BUF
ARI
IND
TEN
SEA
JAXWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 9
Q2 12% 2
Q3 12% 2
Q4 24% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 76% of 17 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 8–10 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 7 | 71% 5 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.