When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
17 games · 2024 · Dallas Cowboys · pick one to list those games
65% went over. Of the 11 overs, 9% had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 12% of games.
All 17 games
2024 · Dallas Cowboys · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 18 |
WSH -7.5 | 43.5 | 391942 | U | DAL Q1 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2024 · Week 17 |
PHI -7.5 | 37.5 | 14314148 | Q3 | PHI Q2 | 7–41 |
2024 · Week 16 |
TB -4.5 | 47.5 | 10374350 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 0173144 | Q4 | DAL Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 14 |
CIN -4.5 | 50.5 | 14273447 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DAL -4.5 | 39.5 | 10233747 | Q4 | DAL Q3 | 20–27 |
2024 · Week 12 |
WSH -10.5 | 44.5 | 361960 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
34–26 |
2024 · Week 11 |
HOU -7.5 | 41.5 | 14273044 | Q4 | HOU Q3 Late over |
34–10 |
2024 · Week 10 |
PHI -7.5 | 44.5 | 10203440 | U | PHI Q2 | 34–6 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ATL -3.5 | 51.5 | 10243448 | U | ATL Q1 | 21–27 |
2024 · Week 8 |
SF -5.5 | 47.5 | 3163754 | Q4 | SF Q3 Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 6 |
DET -3.5 | 52.5 | 10334656 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 47–9 |
2024 · Week 5 |
PIT -2.5 | 44.5 | 691637 | U | DAL Q4 | 20–17 |
2024 · Week 4 |
DAL -5.5 | 44.5 | 10232935 | U | NYG Q1 | 20–15 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BAL -1.5 | 47.5 | 17273453 | Q4 | BAL Q1 Late over |
28–25 |
2024 · Week 2 |
DAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 17516063 | Q2 | NO Q1 | 44–19 |
2024 · Week 1 |
CLE -2 | 42.5 | 10234050 | Q4 | DAL Q1 | 33–17 |
WSH
DAL
PHI
TB
CAR
CIN
NYG
HOU
ATL
SF
DET
PIT
BAL
NO
CLEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 59% 10
Q2 12% 2
Q3 18% 3
Q4 12% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 88% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 94% and covered 81% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.