When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2023 · Week 8 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 16 games
2023 · Week 8 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 8 |
DET -7 | 46 | 3233740 | U | DET Q2 | 14–26 |
2023 · Week 8 |
LAC -9.5 | 46 | 14313743 | U | LAC Q1 | 13–30 |
2023 · Week 8 |
KC -7 | 45.5 | 10232333 | U | DEN Q1 | 9–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BAL -9.5 | 45 | 14212855 | Q4 | ARI Q4 Late over |
31–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SF -4.5 | 44 | 21242748 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Late over |
31–17 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SEA -4 | 38.5 | 24313744 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
20–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
DAL -7 | 44.5 | 20425363 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 20–43 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MIN PK | 41.5 | 7133434 | U | MIN Q1 | 24–10 |
2023 · Week 8 |
ATL -2.5 | 35 | 10173051 | Q4 | TEN Q1 | 23–28 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NO -2 | 44 | 14414865 | Q3 | NO Q3 | 38–27 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MIA -7.5 | 46.5 | 14243448 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late cover flip Late over |
17–31 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 8 |
JAX -2.5 | 41 | 6122730 | U | JAX Q1 | 20–10 |
2023 · Week 8 |
PHI -7 | 42.5 | 10273469 | Q4 | Push | 38–31 |
2023 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 43 | 0132528 | U | CAR Q1 Lead lost |
13–15 |
2023 · Week 8 |
BUF -10 | 43 | 3273442 | U | TB Q4 Late cover flip |
18–24 |
LV
DET
CHI
LAC
KC
DEN
BAL
ARI
CIN
SF
CLE
SEA
LAR
DAL
MIN
GB
ATL
TEN
NO
IND
NE
MIA
NYJ
NYG
JAX
PIT
PHI
WSH
HOU
CAR
TB
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 13% 2
Q3 6% 1
Q4 13% 2
OT 0% 0
Push 19% 3
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 63% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 67% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.