When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2023 · Week 18 · pick one to list those games
44% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2023 · Week 18 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
BUF -2.5 | 48 | 0212135 | U | BUF Q4 | 21–14 |
2023 · Week 18 |
GB -2.5 | 46 | 3132026 | U | GB Q3 | 9–17 |
2023 · Week 18 |
LV -3 | 37.5 | 7242441 | Q4 | LV Q1 | 14–27 |
2023 · Week 18 |
PHI -5 | 43 | 3242737 | U | NYG Q1 | 10–27 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SEA -3 | 47.5 | 3192641 | U | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 18 |
LAC -3.5 | 35 | 7161925 | U | KC Q1 | 13–12 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SF -5.5 | 40 | 14273341 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 18 |
DAL -13 | 47 | 7314548 | Q4 | DAL Q3 Late over |
38–10 |
2023 · Week 18 |
CIN -7 | 37 | 14243145 | Q4 | CIN Q1 | 14–31 |
2023 · Week 18 |
DET -3.5 | 47.5 | 13193350 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 20–30 |
2023 · Week 18 |
JAX -3.5 | 41 | 10344148 | Q4 | TEN Q1 | 20–28 |
2023 · Week 18 |
NE -2.5 | 28.5 | 39920 | U | NYJ Q1 | 17–3 |
2023 · Week 18 |
NO -3 | 41.5 | 21344865 | Q3 | NO Q3 | 17–48 |
2023 · Week 18 |
TB -4.5 | 36.5 | 0669 | U | TB Q2 | 9–0 |
2023 · Week 18 |
HOU -1.5 | 48 | 10203142 | U | HOU Q1 | 23–19 |
2023 · Week 18 |
PIT -3 | 34 | 7141427 | U | PIT Q4 | 17–10 |
BUF
MIA
CHI
GB
DEN
LV
PHI
NYG
SEA
ARI
KC
LAC
LAR
SF
DAL
WSH
CLE
CIN
MIN
DET
JAX
TEN
NYJ
NE
ATL
NO
TB
CAR
HOU
IND
PIT
BALWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 6% 1
Q3 25% 4
Q4 19% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 79% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 86% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.