1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · NFL

NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

16 games · 2023 · Week 17 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games16100%By halftime16%In Q3319%In Q4531%In OT00%Stayed under744%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands319%Over cashed16%Leader lost the game00%
56% went over. Of the 9 overs, 11% had cashed by halftime and 44% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

All 16 games

2023 · Week 17 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 17
 GB -1 42.5 10263343 Q4 GB Q1 33–10
2023 · Week 17
 DEN -3.5 39 3161925 U DEN Q2 9–16
2023 · Week 17
 KC -7.5 46 10303342 U KC Q4
Late cover flip
 17–25
2023 · Week 17
 SEA -4 40.5 7314153 Q3 PIT Q1 30–23
2023 · Week 17
 BUF -15.5 40 20344148 Q3 NE Q1 21–27
2023 · Week 17
 CHI -2.5 39.5 7283754 Q4 CHI Q1 17–37
2023 · Week 17
 IND -3.5 42.5 10172743 Q4 LV Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 20–23
2023 · Week 17
 LAR -6 43.5 7243651 Q4 NYG Q2
Late cover flip
 26–25
2023 · Week 17
 PHI -12.5 48 10274266 Q4 ARI Q3 35–31
2023 · Week 17
 TB -2.5 42.5 7172036 U NO Q1 23–13
2023 · Week 17
 SF -14 48.5 10233037 U SF Q4 27–10
2023 · Week 17
 JAX -3.5 38 391926 U JAX Q2 0–26
2023 · Week 17
 BAL -3 47 17414875 Q3 BAL Q2 19–56
2023 · Week 17
 HOU -5.5 44 3232629 U HOU Q2 3–26
2023 · Week 17
 DAL -4.5 53 10102039 U DET Q1 19–20
2023 · Week 17
 CLE -7 33.5 27515157 Q2 CLE Q1 20–37
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 7
Q2 31% 5
Q3 6% 1
Q4 19% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 63% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 71% of 14 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over4100% 4
1–31100% 1
4–71100% 1
8–102100% 2
11–1410% 0
15–171100% 1
18–2140% 0
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.