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NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

16 games · 2023 · Week 16 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games16100%By halftime00%In Q3213%In Q4956%In OT00%Stayed under531%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands213%Over cashed319%Leader lost the game16%
69% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.

All 16 games

2023 · Week 16 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 16
 SF -6.5 47 8284552 Q4 BAL Q1 33–19
2023 · Week 16
 PHI -14 41 10233858 Q4 NYG Q3 25–33
2023 · Week 16
 KC -11 40.5 3242734 U LV Q1 20–14
2023 · Week 16
 DEN -7 37.5 7103049 Q4 NE Q2 26–23
2023 · Week 16
 CHI -4.5 42 7283443 Q4 CHI Q1
Late over
 16–27
2023 · Week 16
 MIA -1.5 48.5 10202942 U MIA Q2 20–22
2023 · Week 16
 JAX -1.5 43 3203642 U TB Q1 12–30
2023 · Week 16
 ATL -2.5 44 14203039 U ATL Q2 10–29
2023 · Week 16
 SEA -3 42.5 0131637 U Push 20–17
2023 · Week 16
 DET -2.5 48 14314454 Q4 DET Q4 30–24
2023 · Week 16
 NYJ -3 36 17344158 Q3 WSH Q4
Late cover flip
 28–30
2023 · Week 16
 GB -3.5 39.5 10333963 Q4 CAR Q4
Late cover flip
 33–30
2023 · Week 16
 CLE -3 40 7293558 Q4 CLE Q1 36–22
2023 · Week 16
 BUF -13 44 3243446 Q4 LAC Q1
Late over Lead lost
 24–22
2023 · Week 16
 CIN -3 39 7244245 Q3 PIT Q1 11–34
2023 · Week 16
 LAR -4 45.5 7243452 Q4 LAR Q1
Late over
 22–30
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 19% 3
Q3 6% 1
Q4 19% 3
OT 0% 0
Push 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 88% and covered 63% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 94% and covered 69% of 16 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–32100% 2
4–73100% 3
8–10367% 2
11–14367% 2
15–1710% 0
18–2110% 0
22+10% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.