When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2023 · Week 15 · pick one to list those games
44% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 43% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 36% of games.
All 16 games
2023 · Week 15 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 15 |
PHI -5 | 46 | 7132737 | U | SEA Q4 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
BAL -4 | 42.5 | 3101730 | U | BAL Q4 | 23–7 |
2023 · Week 15 |
BUF -2.5 | 49 | 7242741 | U | BUF Q1 | 10–31 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 3132748 | U | LAR Q2 | 20–28 |
2023 · Week 15 |
SF -12 | 48 | 21345174 | Q3 | SF Q3 | 45–29 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CLE -2.5 | 38 | 0142437 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
GB -4 | 41 | 10234454 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 34–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
TEN -3 | 38 | 616223235 | U | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–16 |
2023 · Week 15 |
MIA -7 | 35.5 | 7242730 | U | MIA Q2 | 0–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
KC -10 | 39.5 | 7243744 | Q4 | Push | 27–17 |
2023 · Week 15 |
NO -6 | 39.5 | 10132330 | U | NO Q3 | 6–24 |
2023 · Week 15 |
ATL -2.5 | 32.5 | 0101016 | U | CAR Q4 Lead lost |
7–9 |
2023 · Week 15 |
DET -5.5 | 49 | 0213859 | Q4 | DET Q2 | 17–42 |
2023 · Week 15 |
IND -1 | 41.5 | 6273743 | Q4 | IND Q3 Late over |
13–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CIN -3 | 41.5 | 1010204851 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over |
24–27 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LV -3 | 36 | 21426384 | Q2 | LV Q1 | 21–63 |
PHI
SEA
BAL
JAX
DAL
BUF
WSH
LAR
SF
ARI
CHI
CLE
TB
GB
HOU
TEN
NYJ
MIA
KC
NE
NYG
NO
ATL
CAR
DEN
DET
PIT
IND
MIN
CIN
LAC
LVWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 13% 2
Q2 25% 4
Q3 19% 3
Q4 31% 5
OT 0% 0
Push 13% 2
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 67% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 69% and covered 63% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.