When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2023 · Week 12 · pick one to list those games
56% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
All 16 games
2023 · Week 12 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 12 |
MIN -3 | 43 | 06922 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
12–10 |
2023 · Week 12 |
BAL -3 | 49 | 3131630 | U | BAL Q2 Late cover flip |
20–10 |
2023 · Week 12 |
KC -9 | 42.5 | 7283848 | Q4 | KC Q4 | 31–17 |
2023 · Week 12 |
PHI -2.5 | 48.5 | 724386271 | Q4 | PHI OT | 34–37 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DEN -2 | 37.5 | 7202941 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late over |
12–29 |
2023 · Week 12 |
LAR -3 | 45 | 15293251 | Q4 | LAR Q2 | 37–14 |
2023 · Week 12 |
NO -2 | 42 | 10232639 | U | ATL Q1 | 15–24 |
2023 · Week 12 |
PIT -2 | 36 | 0101726 | U | PIT Q3 | 16–10 |
2023 · Week 12 |
TEN -3.5 | 36 | 7202727 | U | TEN Q1 | 10–17 |
2023 · Week 12 |
IND -2.5 | 44.5 | 13273047 | Q4 | IND Q1 Late over |
20–27 |
2023 · Week 12 |
NE -4.5 | 36 | 071417 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–10 |
2023 · Week 12 |
JAX -1 | 48 | 3203545 | U | JAX Q1 | 24–21 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIA -8.5 | 40 | 3232647 | Q4 | MIA Q2 Late over |
34–13 |
2023 · Week 12 |
SF -7 | 43 | 10273744 | Q4 | SF Q2 | 31–13 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DAL -13 | 48 | 7303055 | Q4 | DAL Q4 Late over |
10–45 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DET -8.5 | 47 | 26294351 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
29–22 |
CHI
MIN
BAL
LAC
KC
LV
BUF
PHI
CLE
DEN
LAR
ARI
NO
ATL
PIT
CIN
CAR
TEN
TB
IND
NE
NYG
JAX
HOU
MIA
NYJ
SF
SEA
WSH
DAL
GB
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 25% 4
Q3 6% 1
Q4 13% 2
OT 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 86% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 93% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.