When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2023 · Las Vegas Raiders · pick one to list those games
31% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 16 games
2023 · Las Vegas Raiders · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
LV -3 | 37.5 | 7242441 | Q4 | LV Q1 | 14–27 |
2023 · Week 17 |
IND -3.5 | 42.5 | 10172743 | Q4 | LV Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 16 |
KC -11 | 40.5 | 3242734 | U | LV Q1 | 20–14 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LV -3 | 36 | 21426384 | Q2 | LV Q1 | 21–63 |
2023 · Week 14 |
MIN -3 | 40.5 | 0003 | U | Push Late cover flip |
3–0 |
2023 · Week 12 |
KC -9 | 42.5 | 7283848 | Q4 | KC Q4 | 31–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
MIA -13.5 | 44 | 17273333 | U | LV Q1 | 13–20 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NYJ PK | 36.5 | 9151828 | U | LV Q4 | 12–16 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LV -3 | 38.5 | 7242736 | U | LV Q1 | 6–30 |
2023 · Week 8 |
DET -7 | 46 | 3233740 | U | DET Q2 | 14–26 |
2023 · Week 7 |
LV -1.5 | 37.5 | 7172442 | Q4 | CHI Q1 Late over |
12–30 |
2023 · Week 6 |
LV -3.5 | 40.5 | 3162638 | U | LV Q2 | 17–21 |
2023 · Week 5 |
LV -1 | 43.5 | 3132330 | U | LV Q4 | 13–17 |
2023 · Week 4 |
LAC -6.5 | 49 | 14313441 | U | LAC Q2 | 17–24 |
2023 · Week 3 |
LV -1.5 | 42.5 | 14203041 | U | PIT Q1 | 23–18 |
2023 · Week 1 |
DEN -3.5 | 44.5 | 13232333 | U | LV Q1 | 17–16 |
DEN
LV
IND
KC
LAC
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
DET
CHI
NE
GB
PITWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 8
Q2 19% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 25% 4
OT 0% 0
Push 6% 1
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 71% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 6 | 33% 2 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.