When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
94 games · 2026 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 49 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 26% of games.
Cover changed hands in the last 5 minutes: 16 games
2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 |
PIT -2.5 | 37.5 | 316193845 | Q4 | PIT OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
26–19 |
2026 · Week 5 |
ATL -3 | 44.5 | 1023324653 | Q4 | BAL Q3 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
30–23 |
2026 · Week 5 |
DEN -3 | 42.5 | 7132740 | U | DEN Q4 Late cover flip |
23–17 |
2026 · Week 5 |
CIN -7.5 | 45.5 | 14283855 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip |
31–24 |
2026 · Week 5 |
NYJ -2.5 | 38.5 | 10131329 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
12–17 |
2026 · Week 5 |
WSH -3.5 | 41.5 | 915325454 | Q4 | NYG Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–27 |
2026 · Week 4 |
SEA -7 | 43.5 | 10264353 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip |
23–30 |
2026 · Week 4 |
BAL -11.5 | 41.5 | 14313442 | Q4 | TEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
18–24 |
2026 · Week 3 |
DEN -1.5 | 44.5 | 7163256 | Q4 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
26–30 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BAL -3 | 54.5 | 17304565 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
34–31 |
2026 · Week 3 |
SF -7.5 | 48.5 | 7233666 | Q4 | ARI Q4 Late cover flip |
30–36 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BUF -7 | 50.5 | 10202340 | U | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
16–24 |
2026 · Week 3 |
DET -7 | 49.5 | 0172755 | Q4 | Push Late cover flip Late over |
24–31 |
2026 · Week 3 |
KC -10 | 45.5 | 14212434 | U | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
24–10 |
2026 · Week 1 |
PHI -6 | 43.5 | 3232646 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
22–24 |
2026 · Week 1 |
BUF -1.5 | 44.5 | 10454867 | Q2 | BUF Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
36–31 |
PIT
TB
BAL
ATL
DEN
LAC
CIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
NYG
WSH
SEA
TEN
LAR
DAL
ARI
SF
BUF
DET
KC
PHI
HOUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 46
Q2 14% 13
Q3 9% 8
Q4 23% 22
OT 1% 1
Push 4% 4
The team leading at halftime won 78% and covered 68% of 85 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 80% and covered 70% of 90 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 9 | 100% 9 |
| 1–3 | 5 | 80% 4 |
| 4–7 | 10 | 90% 9 |
| 8–10 | 10 | 90% 9 |
| 11–14 | 12 | 75% 9 |
| 15–17 | 14 | 14% 2 |
| 18–21 | 11 | 27% 3 |
| 22+ | 23 | 17% 4 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.