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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Winthrop @ Wofford

Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium · at Wofford
#205WINWinthrop
@
#248WOFWofford
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WINThis seasonWOF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WOF 78–78 · win probability WOF 50%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

WIN 3, WOF 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
WINBig
WIN offense vs WOF defense
Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 258th, on the model’s ratings
WINSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WIN 34.1%, WOF 29.8%. Defensive: WIN 72.3%, WOF 71.0%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WIN plays 72.0 a game (35th fastest), WOF 68.7 (198th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
WIN has played the 206th-hardest schedule, WOF the 283rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
WOFSmall
WOF offense vs WIN defense
Offense 241st of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings
WINSmall
Three-pointers
WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%; WOF hits 35.0% and allows 36.4%. Threes are 44.1% and 43.1% of their shots
WOFSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WIN 13%, WOF 43%. Transfers in: WIN 5, WOF 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
WOFSmall
Home court
WOF at home. This season: WOF 0-0 at home, WIN 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WIN 44.0, WOF 36.2. Allowed: WIN 39.0, WOF 36.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WIN 14.7%, WOF 13.4%. Forced: WIN 16.6%, WOF 15.0%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5; WOF 52.5 and allows 53.8
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WIN -0.1—
Total—155.3—
Projected score—WIN 77.7 · WOF 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWIN -0.2—
1H total72.6—
1H projected scoreWIN 36.4 · WOF 36.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Winthrop has the better starters

Position by position: Winthrop 1, Wofford 0, even 4
WinthropBetterWofford
G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12
Even
G L. Flynn5.6 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30
Even
G C. Watley9.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28
G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60
WINSmall
G C. Arias TR6.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 44
G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30
Even
F B. Sumpter6.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 34
F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43
No call
F C. Richards3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
WinthropBetterWofford
WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9
WINSmall
WOF defense258th of 366 · -6.7
WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6
WOFSmall
WOF offense241st of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-1.4 · 2 players
Bench-1.7 · 4 players
WOFSmall
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestWIN betterWOF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Winthrop
Guards
M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min
Forwards
G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew
Wofford
Guards
L. Flynn27 minC. Watley25 minC. Arias18 min · TRD. Miller2 minG. Collins2 minC. LoweNew
Forwards
B. Sumpter23 minC. Richards8 minC. SiskNew
Centers
E. RamseyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WINWOF
Scoring
81.5 #40Points per game78.4 #90
1.13 #79Points per possession1.14 #74
72.0 #35Pace (possessions)68.7 #198
Shooting
49.7 #250Effective FG%52.5 #127
33.2 #2173-point %35.0 #119
44.1 #883-point attempt rate43.1 #112
44.0 #10Free throw rate36.2 #144
Possessions
14.7 #52Turnover rate13.4 #12
34.1 #63Offensive rebound rate29.8 #212
13.6 #177Assists per game13.8 #161
Defense
77.7 #261Points allowed78.6 #282
1.08 #154Points allowed per possession1.15 #317
51.5 #182Opponent effective FG%53.8 #294
32.9 #113Opponent 3-point %36.4 #322
16.6 #174Turnovers forced15.0 #291
72.3 #55Defensive rebound rate71.0 #101
6.6 #161Steals per game5.6 #283
2.7 #281Blocks per game3.1 #201
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point76–91
  • Wvs Presbyterian73–71
  • Wvs Charleston So86–81
  • Wvs Presbyterian74–70
  • L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.

Wofford

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Greensboro72–75
  • Lvs The Citadel90–93
  • W@ ETSU72–69
  • Lvs Furman67–76
  • Wvs VMI82–76

A week or more of rest.