Georgia Southern Eagles at South Carolina Upstate Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 12:00 AM ETG.B. Hodge Center · at SC Upstate

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: GA Southern and SC Upstate
GASO	This season	UPST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UPST 77–76 · win probability UPST 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

GASO 3, UPST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GASOBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GASO 14.7%, UPST 18.1%. Forced: GASO 18.7%, UPST 16.5%

GASOSmall

GASO offense vs UPST defense

Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

GASOSmall

Three-pointers

GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%; UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 48.9% and 35.6% of their shots

UPSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GASO 28.8%, UPST 29.2%. Defensive: GASO 64.8%, UPST 68.6%

UPSTSmall

Home court

UPST at home. This season: UPST 0-0 at home, GASO 0-0 away

UPSTSmall

UPST offense vs GASO defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GASO 39.6, UPST 32.8. Allowed: GASO 41.4, UPST 36.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3; UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: GASO plays 71.8 a game (42nd fastest), UPST 70.5 (97th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GASO 16%, UPST 9%. Transfers in: GASO 3, UPST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

GASO has played the 280th-hardest schedule, UPST the 281st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UPST -1.4	—
Total	—	152.6	—
Projected score	—	GASO 75.6 · UPST 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UPST -0.7	—
1H total	71.3	—
1H projected score	GASO 35.3 · UPST 36	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWWWL	17-17	50%	7-7	—
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	6-6	—

Venue/role: GASO away; UPST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UOOUU	19-15	56%	19-16
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

GA Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	@ WOF	W79–57WO
Dec 12	vs UNCW	L84–92LO

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ NCCU	W82–67WO
Dec 12	@ DAV	L59–62WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

GA Southern

35 games played

Straight up

19-16

54% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1654%

L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L–L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1556%

O O O U U U U U O O O U O O O O O U U O–U U O O U O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 3	vsLT	W 77-69	-1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 6	@GWEB	W 88-84	-10.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@WGA	W 91-85	-3.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 18	vsGAST	W 90-67	-9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	vsJMU	W 96-92	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 188
Jan 1	@CCU	W 82-81	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	@ODU	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 10	@USA	L 71-87	+2.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsODU	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsCCU	L 75-79	-6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsARST	L 68-85	+1.5	L −15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	vsTROY	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 30	vsULM	W 79-76	—	—	—	—
Jan 31	@UL	L 60-69	-2.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	vsTXST	L 71-77	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 11	vsAPP	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsMRSH	W 101-87	+2.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 188
Feb 19	@GAST	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	@APP	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 25	@JMU	L 66-82	+5.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	@MRSH	W 99-82	+7.5	W +24.5	168.5	O 181
Mar 4	vsODU	W 88-84	-2.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsARST	W 80-77	+7.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 157
Mar 6	vsUSA	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	149.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsCCU	W 96-72	+1.5	W +25.5	151.5	O 168
Mar 8	vsMRSH	W 82-78	+2.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 160
Mar 9	vsTROY	L 61-77	+5.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

W 77-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 88-84

−6.5

WGA

W 91-85

+2.5

GAST

W 90-67

+13.5

JMU

W 96-92

+1.5

CCU

W 82-81

+2.5

ODU

W 93-86

+5.5

USA

L 71-87

−13.5

ODU

W 87-84

−2.5

CCU

L 75-79

−10.5

ARST

L 68-85

−15.5

TROY

L 78-83

−0.5

L 60-69

−11.5

TXST

L 71-77

−10.5

APP

L 65-81

−14.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+16.5

GAST

L 64-66

−3.5

APP

L 74-89

−7.5

JMU

L 66-82

−10.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+24.5

ODU

W 88-84

+1.5

ARST

W 80-77

+10.5

USA

W 94-85

+13.5

CCU

W 96-72

+25.5

MRSH

W 82-78

+6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

W 77-69

+0.5

GWEB

W 88-84

+9.5

WGA

W 91-85

+21.5

GAST

W 90-67

−2.5

JMU

W 96-92

+34.5

CCU

W 82-81

+5.5

ODU

W 93-86

+17.5

USA

L 71-87

+9.5

ODU

W 87-84

+8.5

CCU

L 75-79

−3.5

ARST

L 68-85

−19.5

TROY

L 78-83

+1.5

L 60-69

−15.5

TXST

L 71-77

−3.5

APP

L 65-81

+2.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+25.5

GAST

L 64-66

−24.5

APP

L 74-89

+15.5

JMU

L 66-82

−5.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+12.5

ODU

W 88-84

+14.5

ARST

W 80-77

−8.5

USA

W 94-85

+29.5

CCU

W 96-72

+16.5

MRSH

W 82-78

−6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−14.5

over 19under 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC Upstate has the better starters

Position by position: GA Southern 0, SC Upstate 1, even 4

GA SouthernBetterSC Upstate

G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39

No call

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10

UPSTBig

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

No call

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

Even

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

GA SouthernBetterSC Upstate

GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2

GASOSmall

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4

Even

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

UPSTBig

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players

UPSTSmall

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

Bench-0.8 · 1 player

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestGASO betterUPST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

GA Southern

Guards

J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew

Forwards

T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GASO79.9 #69

UPST71.0 #265

Points per possession

GASO1.12 #109

UPST1.00 #324

Pace (possessions)

GASO71.8 #42

UPST70.5 #97

Shooting

Effective FG%

GASO51.4 #176

UPST48.3 #307

3-point %

GASO33.4 #207

UPST31.4 #308

3-point attempt rate

GASO48.9 #20

UPST35.6 #256

Free throw rate

GASO39.6 #62

UPST32.8 #239

Possessions

Turnover rate

GASO14.7 #49

UPST18.1 #274

Offensive rebound rate

GASO28.8 #238

UPST29.2 #231

Assists per game

GASO10.7 #344

UPST11.7 #304

Defense

Points allowed

GASO80.3 #325

UPST75.7 #210

Points allowed per possession

GASO1.11 #259

UPST1.08 #170

Opponent effective FG%

GASO52.3 #230

UPST51.0 #156

Opponent 3-point %

GASO34.4 #208

UPST35.6 #289

Turnovers forced

GASO18.7 #65

UPST16.5 #185

Defensive rebound rate

GASO64.8 #342

UPST68.6 #224

Steals per game

GASO8.1 #36

UPST6.1 #220

Blocks per game

GASO3.6 #128

UPST4.7 #24

GASO		UPST
Scoring
79.9 #69	Points per game	71.0 #265
1.12 #109	Points per possession	1.00 #324
71.8 #42	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #97
Shooting
51.4 #176	Effective FG%	48.3 #307
33.4 #207	3-point %	31.4 #308
48.9 #20	3-point attempt rate	35.6 #256
39.6 #62	Free throw rate	32.8 #239
Possessions
14.7 #49	Turnover rate	18.1 #274
28.8 #238	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #231
10.7 #344	Assists per game	11.7 #304
Defense
80.3 #325	Points allowed	75.7 #210
1.11 #259	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #170
52.3 #230	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #156
34.4 #208	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #289
18.7 #65	Turnovers forced	16.5 #185
64.8 #342	Defensive rebound rate	68.6 #224
8.1 #36	Steals per game	6.1 #220
3.6 #128	Blocks per game	4.7 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy61–77
Wvs Marshall82–78
Wvs Coastal96–72
Wvs South Alabama94–85
Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

GA Southern @ SC Upstate

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

GA Southern

SC Upstate

SC Upstate has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

GA Southern

SC Upstate