Southern Utah Thunderbirds at High Point Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ETQubein Center · at High Point

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Utah and High Point
SUU	This season	HPU
0-0	Record	1-0
0-0	ATS	1-0
0-0	O/U	0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HPU 88–69 · win probability HPU 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HPU has more of the edges

SUU 0, HPU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HPUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SUU 20.3%, HPU 12.8%. Forced: SUU 14.8%, HPU 21.3%

HPUBig

HPU offense vs SUU defense

Offense 64th of 366 against a defense 329th, on the model’s ratings

HPUBig

Three-pointers

SUU hits 33.0% and allows 38.0%; HPU hits 34.2% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 35.5% and 43.6% of their shots

HPUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SUU 50.8 and allows 53.3; HPU 54.5 and allows 50.5

HPUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SUU 28.8%, HPU 31.8%. Defensive: SUU 66.4%, HPU 68.9%

Context

Schedule so far

SUU has played the 187th-hardest schedule, HPU the 288th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HPUSmall

SUU offense vs HPU defense

Offense 211th of 366 against a defense 127th, on the model’s ratings

HPUSmall

Home court

HPU at home. This season: HPU 0-0 at home, SUU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SUU 33.1, HPU 40.8. Allowed: SUU 29.8, HPU 35.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SUU 27%, HPU 36%. Transfers in: SUU 1, HPU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: SUU plays 71.2 a game (62nd fastest), HPU 71.7 (47th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HPU -18.4	—
Total	—	157.2	—
Projected score	—	SUU 69.4 · HPU 87.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HPU -10.8	—
1H total	73.4	—
1H projected score	SUU 31.3 · HPU 42.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SUU WWWLL	15-14	52%	9-8	—
HPU LLWWW	16-17	48%	8-7	—

Venue/role: SUU away; HPU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SUU OUOOU	17-12	59%	7-22
HPU UUOOO	22-11	67%	28-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SUU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
HPU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Utah

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ WAKE	No recent meeting
Nov 19	@ TEX	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs ARST	No recent meeting

High Point

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ SLU	No recent meeting
Nov 19	vs MTST	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs DUQ	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Utah

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

15-14

52% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-12

59% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L W W W L L W L L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1452%

W L W L L W W L L L L L W W W W W L L W L L W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1259%

U O O O O U U O O U U O O U O U U O U O U O O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ASU	L 64-81	+17.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 8	vsRGV	L 72-95	+1.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 15	@OMA	L 85-90	+8.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 17	@GONZ	L 50-122	+35.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 19	@WSU	L 74-98	+12.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 28	@RMU	L 54-61	+8.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 115
Nov 29	vsSTET	W 70-68	-1.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 6	@ORST	L 70-81	+10.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 13	@WASH	L 69-105	+25.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 174
Dec 18	@NAU	L 57-65	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 122
Dec 29	@UTU	L 66-80	+7.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 3	vsUTA	L 77-86	+5.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 163
Jan 8	@UVU	L 72-89	+18.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 161
Jan 10	@CBU	L 55-58	+14.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 113
Jan 15	vsTAR	W 106-105	+3.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 211
Jan 17	vsACU	W 74-52	+3.5	W +25.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 21	vsUVU	W 84-70	+12.5	W +26.5	160.5	U 154
Jan 24	@UTU	L 91-102	+6.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 193
Jan 29	@UTA	L 61-80	+9.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 31	@ACU	W 79-76	+6.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 155
Feb 7	vsTAR	L 59-62	+1.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 12	vsCBU	L 66-83	+5.5	L −11.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 14	@UTA	W 78-73	+8.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 151
Feb 19	@TAR	L 74-78	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 21	@ACU	L 83-87	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 170
Feb 28	vsUTU	W 81-67	+1.5	W +15.5	156.5	U 148
Mar 5	vsUVU	L 88-92	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 180
Mar 7	vsCBU	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Mar 12	vsUTA	L 63-69	+4.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

+0.5

RGV

L 72-95

−21.5

OMA

L 85-90

+3.5

GONZ

L 50-122

−36.5

WSU

L 74-98

−11.5

RMU

L 54-61

+1.5

STET

W 70-68

+0.5

ORST

L 70-81

−0.5

WASH

L 69-105

−10.5

NAU

L 57-65

−2.5

UTU

L 66-80

−6.5

UTA

L 77-86

−3.5

UVU

L 72-89

+1.5

CBU

L 55-58

+11.5

TAR

W 106-105

+4.5

ACU

W 74-52

+25.5

UVU

W 84-70

+26.5

UTU

L 91-102

−4.5

UTA

L 61-80

−9.5

ACU

W 79-76

+9.5

TAR

L 59-62

−1.5

CBU

L 66-83

−11.5

UTA

W 78-73

+13.5

TAR

L 74-78

+0.5

ACU

L 83-87

+4.5

UTU

W 81-67

+15.5

UVU

L 88-92

+5.5

CBU

L 75-82

−0.5

UTA

L 63-69

−1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 14avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ASU

L 64-81

−6.5

RGV

L 72-95

+6.5

OMA

L 85-90

+21.5

GONZ

L 50-122

+11.5

WSU

L 74-98

+14.5

RMU

L 54-61

−37.5

STET

W 70-68

−10.5

ORST

L 70-81

+4.5

WASH

L 69-105

+20.5

NAU

L 57-65

−28.5

UTU

L 66-80

−2.5

UTA

L 77-86

+24.5

UVU

L 72-89

+6.5

CBU

L 55-58

−37.5

TAR

W 106-105

+60.5

ACU

W 74-52

−23.5

UVU

W 84-70

−6.5

UTU

L 91-102

+43.5

UTA

L 61-80

−3.5

ACU

W 79-76

+4.5

TAR

L 59-62

−28.5

CBU

L 66-83

+1.5

UTA

W 78-73

+7.5

TAR

L 74-78

+7.5

ACU

L 83-87

+26.5

UTU

W 81-67

−8.5

UVU

L 88-92

+29.5

CBU

L 75-82

+8.5

UTA

L 63-69

−9.5

over 17under 12avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

High Point

33 games played

Straight up

28-5

85% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-11

67% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-585%

W W L W W W W L W L W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L L W W L W W L W L W L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-1167%

O U U U O O O O O O O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFUR	W 97-71	-3.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsJAX	W 85-64	-17.5	W +3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 14	@UAB	L 74-91	-1.5	L −18.5	168.5	U 165
Nov 17	vsCAN	W 93-50	-23.5	W +19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsUIC	W 90-80	-10.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 170
Nov 22	vsUIW	W 91-80	-12.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 171
Nov 29	vsWCU	W 93-73	-16.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 166
Dec 3	vsSIU	L 84-86	-9.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsNJIT	W 89-72	-28.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 161
Dec 14	vsAPP	L 78-86	-12.5	L −20.5	144.5	O 164
Dec 19	vsLAS	W 84-72	-13.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsBRY	W 93-47	-19.5	W +26.5	153.5	U 140
Dec 31	@UNCA	W 87-69	-10.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 3	vsLONG	W 80-67	-16.5	L −3.5	160.5	U 147
Jan 7	vsGWEB	W 104-49	-26.5	W +28.5	162.5	U 153
Jan 10	@CHSO	W 84-82	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 166
Jan 14	@WIN	L 75-92	-2.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsUPST	W 89-69	-16.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 23	@RAD	W 93-83	-7.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Jan 29	vsPRES	W 84-81	-14.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 165
Jan 31	@LONG	W 71-59	-9.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 130
Feb 4	vsCHSO	W 80-55	-14.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 135
Feb 7	vsRAD	W 86-77	-14.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 163
Feb 12	@UPST	W 95-70	-14.5	W +10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@GWEB	W 112-87	-25.5	L −0.5	161.5	O 199
Feb 19	vsUNCA	W 74-48	-14.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 21	vsWIN	W 89-87	-9.5	L −7.5	166.5	O 176
Feb 26	@PRES	W 79-73	-12.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 152
Mar 6	vsGWEB	W 81-59	-27.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 140
Mar 7	vsUNCA	W 75-71	-14.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 8	vsWIN	W 91-76	-6.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 167
Mar 19	vsWIS	W 83-82	+10.5	W +11.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 21	vsARK	L 88-94	+12.5	W +6.5	171.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FUR

W 97-71

+22.5

JAX

W 85-64

+3.5

UAB

L 74-91

−18.5

CAN

W 93-50

+19.5

UIC

W 90-80

−0.5

UIW

W 91-80

−1.5

WCU

W 93-73

+3.5

SIU

L 84-86

−11.5

NJIT

W 89-72

−11.5

APP

L 78-86

−20.5

LAS

W 84-72

−1.5

BRY

W 93-47

+26.5

UNCA

W 87-69

+7.5

LONG

W 80-67

−3.5

GWEB

W 104-49

+28.5

CHSO

W 84-82

−6.5

WIN

L 75-92

−19.5

UPST

W 89-69

+3.5

RAD

W 93-83

+2.5

PRES

W 84-81

−11.5

LONG

W 71-59

+2.5

CHSO

W 80-55

+10.5

RAD

W 86-77

−5.5

UPST

W 95-70

+10.5

GWEB

W 112-87

−0.5

UNCA

W 74-48

+11.5

WIN

W 89-87

−7.5

PRES

W 79-73

−6.5

GWEB

W 81-59

−5.5

UNCA

W 75-71

−10.5

WIN

W 91-76

+8.5

WIS

W 83-82

+11.5

ARK

L 88-94

+6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FUR

W 97-71

+14.5

JAX

W 85-64

−7.5

UAB

L 74-91

−3.5

CAN

W 93-50

−9.5

UIC

W 90-80

+11.5

UIW

W 91-80

+10.5

WCU

W 93-73

+6.5

SIU

L 84-86

+7.5

NJIT

W 89-72

+5.5

APP

L 78-86

+19.5

LAS

W 84-72

+6.5

BRY

W 93-47

−13.5

UNCA

W 87-69

+4.5

LONG

W 80-67

−13.5

GWEB

W 104-49

−9.5

CHSO

W 84-82

+2.5

WIN

L 75-92

+4.5

UPST

W 89-69

+5.5

RAD

W 93-83

+10.5

PRES

W 84-81

+15.5

LONG

W 71-59

−26.5

CHSO

W 80-55

−27.5

RAD

W 86-77

+0.5

UPST

W 95-70

+10.5

GWEB

W 112-87

+37.5

UNCA

W 74-48

−30.5

WIN

W 89-87

+9.5

PRES

W 79-73

+0.5

GWEB

W 81-59

−15.5

UNCA

W 75-71

−1.5

WIN

W 91-76

+9.5

WIS

W 83-82

+3.5

ARK

L 88-94

+10.5

over 22under 11avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Utah has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Utah 2, High Point 1, even 2

Southern UtahBetterHigh Point

G B. Johnson0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. Rivera-Torres TR15.9 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 91

G Z. Kidd0.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Williams TR12.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 60

F J. Feroah14 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87

SUUSmall

G C. Brown TR10.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.6 ast Score 64

F J. Nicholls TR10.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 95

SUUSmall

F I. Garrett TR13.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79

F C. Barclay4.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8

HPUBig

F F. Sherman TR10.8 pts · 8.6 reb · 1 ast Score 85

Southern UtahBetterHigh Point

SUU offense211th of 366 · -6.4

HPUSmall

HPU defense127th of 366 · -2.3

SUU defense329th of 366 · -8.6

HPUBig

HPU offense64th of 366 · +2.2

Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players

HPUBig

Backcourt+3.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.8 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+4.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSUU betterHPU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Southern Utah

Guards

B. Johnson4 minZ. Kidd3 minD. SandersNewA. BrelandNewJ. BrownNewC. DegraffenriedNew

Forwards

J. Feroah31 minJ. Nicholls18 min · TRC. Barclay16 minJ. RiakNewJ. NichollsNewD. SmithNew

Centers

M. ProtsenkoNew

High Point

Guards

J. Rivera-Torres36 min · TRC. Williams32 min · TRC. Brown27 min · TRC. Martinez22 minL. Campbell15 min · TRS. McDermott2 min · TR

Forwards

I. Garrett29 min · TRF. Sherman26 min · TRF. Brankovic24 min · TRC. Fletcher22 minB. Hausen21 minC. Miller7 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SUU72.3 #235

HPU86.4 #9

Points per possession

SUU1.01 #310

HPU1.20 #12

Pace (possessions)

SUU71.2 #62

HPU71.7 #47

Shooting

Effective FG%

SUU50.8 #200

HPU54.5 #51

3-point %

SUU33.0 #231

HPU34.2 #161

3-point attempt rate

SUU35.5 #261

HPU43.6 #98

Free throw rate

SUU33.1 #235

HPU40.8 #50

Possessions

Turnover rate

SUU20.3 #352

HPU12.8 #5

Offensive rebound rate

SUU28.8 #239

HPU31.8 #131

Assists per game

SUU12.9 #223

HPU15.4 #74

Defense

Points allowed

SUU81.3 #335

HPU72.8 #128

Points allowed per possession

SUU1.14 #308

HPU1.01 #38

Opponent effective FG%

SUU53.3 #276

HPU50.5 #126

Opponent 3-point %

SUU38.0 #358

HPU32.6 #97

Turnovers forced

SUU14.8 #302

HPU21.3 #8

Defensive rebound rate

SUU66.4 #309

HPU68.9 #207

Steals per game

SUU5.2 #317

HPU10.1 #2

Blocks per game

SUU4.1 #60

HPU3.6 #119

SUU		HPU
Scoring
72.3 #235	Points per game	86.4 #9
1.01 #310	Points per possession	1.20 #12
71.2 #62	Pace (possessions)	71.7 #47
Shooting
50.8 #200	Effective FG%	54.5 #51
33.0 #231	3-point %	34.2 #161
35.5 #261	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #98
33.1 #235	Free throw rate	40.8 #50
Possessions
20.3 #352	Turnover rate	12.8 #5
28.8 #239	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #131
12.9 #223	Assists per game	15.4 #74
Defense
81.3 #335	Points allowed	72.8 #128
1.14 #308	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #38
53.3 #276	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #126
38.0 #358	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #97
14.8 #302	Turnovers forced	21.3 #8
66.4 #309	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #207
5.2 #317	Steals per game	10.1 #2
4.1 #60	Blocks per game	3.6 #119

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Utah

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Arlington63–69
Lvs CA Baptist75–82
Lvs Utah Valley88–92
Wvs Utah Tech81–67
L@ Abilene Chrstn83–87

A week or more of rest.

High Point

28-5 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Arkansas88–94
Wvs Wisconsin83–82
Wvs Winthrop91–76
Wvs UNC Asheville75–71
Wvs Gardner-Webb81–59

A week or more of rest.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at High Point Panthers

What could decide it: HPU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Utah

High Point

Southern Utah has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Southern Utah

High Point