Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
UCSD -4.5✓ CP covered by 1.5
UCSD -4.5✓ CP covered by 1.5Closing total162.5Under by 21.5
 CP | This season | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| 12-18 | Record | 20-10 |
| 16-14 | ATS | 16-14 |
| 18-12 | O/U | 12-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CP 77–84 UCSD · ✓ UCSD (71%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 35 | 34 | 69 |
| UCSD | 26 | 46 | 72 |
1st half: CP 35, UCSD 26 (CP by 9). The model had UCSD by 3.6 and a total of 75.2 (actual 61).
Team stats
| CP | UCSD | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-65 38% | Field goals | 25-55 45% |
| 6-32 19% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 17-25 68% |
| 39 11 off | Rebounds | 38 7 off |
| 15 | Assists | 15 |
| 5 | Steals | 5 |
| 0 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa G | 35 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 8-22 | 0-6 |
| Austin Goode F | 34 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 33 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3-12 | 1-9 |
| Cayden Ward G | 31 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jake Davis G | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jackson Mosley PG | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Ali Assran F | 11 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Jason Scott, Kieran Elliott, Eric Brown, Aaron Price Jr., Luka Tarlac
| UCSD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Beath F | 35 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Tom Beattie G | 35 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 8-12 | 2-5 |
| Alex Chaikin G | 33 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Hudson Mayes G | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 10-16 | 1-1 |
| Bol Dengdit C | 26 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaden Vance F | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Emanuel Prospere II G | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Aidan Burke G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tyson Dunn, Christopher Cox, Ryder Elisaldez, Trap Johnson, Dimitrije Vukicevic, Yaqub Mir, Jasen Brooks, Cade Pendleton
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSD -4.5
ModelUCSD -6.3
Model edgeUCSD +1.8
L CP covered
Total
Market162.5
Model160.9
Model edgeUnder 1.6
W Under
Projected score
CP 77.3 · UCSD 83.6
CP 69 · UCSD 72
Win probability
UCSD 71%
1st half
Spread
UCSD -3.6
CP -9.0
Total
75.2
61 points
Projected score
CP 35.8 · UCSD 39.4
CP 35 · UCSD 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSD -5.5
1 → CP
CloseUCSD -4.5
1 pt toward CP
Total
Open158.5
▲ 4
Close162.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
CP +170 · UCSD -205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSD -5.5 · closed UCSD -4.5 · moved 1 toward CPmodel UCSD -6.5
model UCSD -6.5
Opened 158.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 4 upmodel 161
model 161
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
| UCSD | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
CP 3–6 UCSDUCSD leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CP 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2025-26 | CP 64 @ UCSD 80 | UCSD -7.5 | UCSD W |
| Jan 1, 2025-26 | UCSD 65 @ CP 67 | CP +8.5 | CP W |
| Feb 20, 2024-25 | UCSD 81 @ CP 67 | CP +12.5 | UCSD W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | CP 68 @ UCSD 95 | UCSD -14.5 | UCSD W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | CP 87 @ UCSD 92 | UCSD -17.5 | CP W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cal Poly
30 games played
Straight up
12-18
40% wins
Against the spread
16-14
53% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
18-12
60% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @ SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vs UCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCLA | L 87-108 | +24.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 21 | vs IDHO | L 80-83 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 1 | vsUCSD | W 67-65 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | @ LBSU | L 66-74 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 8 | @ CSUN | L 90-95 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | O 185 |
| Jan 10 | vs UCD | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 168.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 15 | vs HAW | L 66-86 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 22 | @ UCSB | L 67-107 | +8.5 | L −31.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 24 | vsCSUF | L 78-93 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 29 | @ CSUB | W 104-79 | -1.5 | W +23.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 31 | @UCR | W 94-87 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Feb 5 | vsCSUN | L 96-97 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 177.5 | O 193 |
| Feb 7 | @UCD | L 58-67 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 12 | vs UCI | W 79-73 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 161.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 14 | vsUCSB | W 89-79 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 19 | @HAW | W 86-75 | +11.5 | W +22.5 | 160.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 26 | vsLBSU | W 102-92 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 194 |
| Feb 28 | @UCSD | L 64-80 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Mar 5 | @UCI | L 85-107 | +9.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | O 192 |
| Mar 7 | vsCSUB | W 108-76 | -8.5 | W +23.5 | 174.5 | O 184 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+3.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−1.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
+10.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−5.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+1.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
+7.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−14.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
−31.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−13.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+23.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+8.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+1.5
7
@UCD
UCDL 58-67
−3.5
12
vsUCI
UCIW 79-73
+11.5
14
vsUCSB
UCSBW 89-79
+13.5
19
@HAW
HAWW 86-75
+22.5
26
vsLBSU
LBSUW 102-92
+4.5
28
@UCSD
UCSDL 64-80
−8.5
5
@UCI
UCIL 85-107
−12.5
7
vsCSUB
CSUBW 108-76
+23.5
covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+33.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−4.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
−42.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−22.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+9.5
10
vsUCD
UCDW 84-78
−6.5
15
vsHAW
HAWL 66-86
−8.5
22
@UCSB
UCSBL 67-107
+14.5
24
vsCSUF
CSUFL 78-93
−2.5
29
@CSUB
CSUBW 104-79
+21.5
31
@UCR
UCRW 94-87
+18.5
5
vsCSUN
CSUNL 96-97
+15.5
7
@UCD
UCDL 58-67
−44.5
12
vsUCI
UCIW 79-73
−9.5
14
vsUCSB
UCSBW 89-79
+8.5
19
@HAW
HAWW 86-75
+0.5
26
vsLBSU
LBSUW 102-92
+31.5
28
@UCSD
UCSDL 64-80
−20.5
5
@UCI
UCIL 85-107
+31.5
7
vsCSUB
CSUBW 108-76
+9.5
over 18under 12avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
UC San Diego
30 games played
Straight up
20-10
67% wins
Against the spread
16-14
53% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-18
40% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs HCU | W 78-60 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 12 | @ FRES | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 15 | vsIDHO | W 75-67 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 24 | vs TEM | W 91-76 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 25 | vs BRAD | W 87-77 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs TOW | W 87-73 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 2 | @ NEV | L 70-76 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @LBSU | W 80-74 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 13 | vs TULN | W 93-67 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | @ LMU | W 67-57 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 19 | vs USD | L 80-82 | -12.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 1 | @CP | L 65-67 | -8.5 | L −10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | vsHAW | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 8 | vsCSUF | L 71-88 | -13.5 | L −30.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 10 | @UCR | W 69-66 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 15 | vsCSUN | L 79-84 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 17 | @CSUB | W 83-62 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 22 | @UCD | W 80-74 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 24 | vsUCI | L 59-61 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 29 | vsUCSB | L 48-62 | -4.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 110 |
| Jan 31 | @CSUN | L 64-81 | -1.5 | L −18.5 | 160.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 5 | vsLBSU | W 77-74 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 7 | @HAW | L 67-72 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 12 | vsUCD | W 68-51 | -5.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | U 119 |
| Feb 14 | vsUCR | W 72-66 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 21 | @UCI | W 71-69 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 26 | vsCSUB | W 84-72 | -14.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 28 | vsCP | W 80-64 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Mar 5 | @CSUF | L 71-75 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 7 | @UCSB | W 64-63 | +2.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | U 127 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
+10.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+6.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
+2.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+16.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+11.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+12.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−0.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
−2.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+20.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
+8.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
−14.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−10.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
8
vsCSUF
CSUFL 71-88
−30.5
10
@UCR
UCRW 69-66
−7.5
15
vsCSUN
CSUNL 79-84
−12.5
17
@CSUB
CSUBW 83-62
+12.5
22
@UCD
UCDW 80-74
+4.5
24
vsUCI
UCIL 59-61
−4.5
29
vsUCSB
UCSBL 48-62
−18.5
31
@CSUN
CSUNL 64-81
−18.5
5
vsLBSU
LBSUW 77-74
−7.5
7
@HAW
HAWL 67-72
+1.5
12
vsUCD
UCDW 68-51
+11.5
14
vsUCR
UCRW 72-66
−5.5
21
@UCI
UCIW 71-69
+5.5
26
vsCSUB
CSUBW 84-72
−2.5
28
vsCP
CPW 80-64
+8.5
5
@CSUF
CSUFL 71-75
−6.5
7
@UCSB
UCSBW 64-63
+3.5
covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
−3.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+2.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
−6.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+18.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+18.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+21.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−3.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
+8.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+10.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
−26.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
+5.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−42.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
8
vsCSUF
CSUFL 71-88
−7.5
10
@UCR
UCRW 69-66
−14.5
15
vsCSUN
CSUNL 79-84
+3.5
17
@CSUB
CSUBW 83-62
−2.5
22
@UCD
UCDW 80-74
+1.5
24
vsUCI
UCIL 59-61
−26.5
29
vsUCSB
UCSBL 48-62
−35.5
31
@CSUN
CSUNL 64-81
−15.5
5
vsLBSU
LBSUW 77-74
+6.5
7
@HAW
HAWL 67-72
−10.5
12
vsUCD
UCDW 68-51
−31.5
14
vsUCR
UCRW 72-66
−9.5
21
@UCI
UCIW 71-69
−3.5
26
vsCSUB
CSUBW 84-72
+7.5
28
vsCP
CPW 80-64
−20.5
5
@CSUF
CSUFL 71-75
−10.5
7
@UCSB
UCSBW 64-63
−14.5
over 12under 18avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cal Poly
12-18 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bakersfield108–76
- L@ UC Irvine85–107
- L@ UC San Diego64–80
- Wvs Long Beach St102–92
- W@ Hawai'i86–75
4 days since their last game.
UC San Diego
20-10 overall · 12-8 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Santa Barbara64–63
- L@ Fullerton71–75
- Wvs Cal Poly80–64
- Wvs Bakersfield84–72
- W@ UC Irvine71–69
4 days since their last game.