Evansville Purple Aces at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St · Conference game

#255EVANEvansville72▲ winner

Final

#207INSTIndiana St69final

Closing lineINST -7.5✓ EVAN covered by 10.5

Closing total145.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Evansville and Indiana St
EVAN	This season	INST
2-13	Record	6-8
6-9	ATS	9-5
6-9	O/U	6-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EVAN 71–77 INST · ✗ INST (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EVAN	35	37	72
INST	38	31	69

1st half: EVAN 35, INST 38 (INST by 3). The model had INST by 3.2 and a total of 69.4 (actual 73).

Team stats

EVAN		INST
29-58 50%	Field goals	26-66 39%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	5-28 18%
4-4 100%	Free throws	12-17 71%
31 2 off	Rebounds	41 14 off
14	Assists	14
7	Steals	8
6	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	11
13	Fouls	9
30	Points in paint	40
6	Fast-break points	20

Players

EVAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Hughes F	35	14	6	2	6-13	2-7
Leif Moeller G	34	17	8	8	7-11	3-4
Alex Hemenway G	29	12	3	2	4-9	3-7
AJ Casey F	25	17	3	0	7-12	1-1
Bryce Quinet G	22	3	1	0	1-5	0-0
Bench
Trent Hundley F	22	5	4	0	2-5	1-3
James Dyson-Merwe F	20	4	2	1	2-2	0-0
Kaia Berridge G	13	0	3	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Aaron Gutman, Weston Aigner, Dakota Candler, Leo Amari IV, Connor Turnbull, Keishon Porter, Marlon Barnes Jr.

INST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ian Scott F	38	24	11	3	11-16	1-3
Derek Vorst C	33	10	9	2	2-6	0-2
Camp Wagner G	31	16	5	2	6-13	2-6
Xavier Hall G	30	3	2	1	1-7	0-5
Jo Van Buggenhout G	22	4	2	3	2-9	0-4
Bench
Sterling Young G	19	9	2	1	3-8	1-3
Bruno Alocen G	19	3	2	1	1-4	1-3
Enel St. Bernard F	5	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Sivert Waerstad Nordheim G	3	0	0	0	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Caden Huttenlocker, Martin Kaupanger, Jayan Walker, Cooper Bean, Hunter Harding, Zyair Greene, Markus Harding

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	INST -7.5	INST -5.5	EVAN +2.0	W EVAN covered
Total	145.5	148.2	Over 2.7	L Under
Projected score	—	EVAN 71.3 · INST 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	INST -3.2	INST -3.0
1H total	69.4	73
1H projected score	EVAN 33.1 · INST 36.3	EVAN 35 · INST 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EVAN LWLLL	6-9	40%	3-2	5-6
INST LLWWW	9-5	64%	4-1	3-1

Venue/role: EVAN away, as underdog; INST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EVAN UUUUU	6-9	40%	2-13
INST OUOOU	6-8	43%	6-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EVAN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
INST	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

EVAN 2–7 INSTINST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · EVAN 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 19, 2024-25	EVAN 79 @ INST 74	INST -7.5	EVAN W
Jan 4, 2024-25	INST 66 @ EVAN 62	EVAN +3.5	INST W
Feb 28, 2023-24	INST 85 @ EVAN 67	EVAN +10.5	INST W
Jan 3, 2023-24	EVAN 73 @ INST 87	INST -14.5	EVAN W
Mar 2, 2022-23	EVAN 58 vs INST 97	INST -16.5	INST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Evansville

15 games played

Straight up

2-13

13% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-9

40% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1313%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L

8 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-940%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

over 6under 9avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

14 games played

Straight up

6-8

43% wins

Against the spread

9-5

64% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-843%

L W L W W L L W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-564%

L W L W W W L W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-843%

O U U U U O O U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsBEL	W 81-80	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNI	L 66-75	+10.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 4	@DRKE	L 72-74	+6.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

BEL

W 81-80

+8.5

UNI

L 66-75

+1.5

DRKE

L 72-74

+4.5

covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

BEL

W 81-80

+1.5

UNI

L 66-75

+5.5

DRKE

L 72-74

−3.5

over 6under 8avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Evansville @ Indiana St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Evansville

Indiana St

Evansville

Indiana St