Breslin Center · at Michigan St · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -6.5✓ MSU covered by 14.5
MSU -6.5✓ MSU covered by 14.5Closing total145.5Under by 4.5
 IU | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | Record | 14-2 |
| 8-8 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 9-7 | O/U | 5-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: IU 70–75 MSU · ✓ MSU (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 32 | 28 | 60 |
| MSU | 39 | 42 | 81 |
1st half: IU 32, MSU 39 (MSU by 7). The model had MSU by 2.9 and a total of 67.9 (actual 71).
Team stats
| IU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-49 43% | Field goals | 27-53 51% |
| 10-31 32% | 3-pointers | 8-26 31% |
| 8-11 73% | Free throws | 19-24 79% |
| 19 5 off | Rebounds | 37 13 off |
| 17 | Assists | 17 |
| 8 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 25 |
Players
| IU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Wilkerson G | 37 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 6-14 | 5-11 |
| Tayton Conerway G | 36 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Tucker DeVries F | 33 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-10 | 1-7 |
| Sam Alexis F | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Conor Enright G | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nick Dorn G | 28 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Reed Bailey F | 18 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Trent Sisley F | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Aleksa Ristic, Andrej Acimovic, Tryce Grensing, Deuce Drake, Drew Snively, Josh Harris, Ian Stephens, Jasai Miles, Jordan Rayford
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 33 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 8-14 | 1-6 |
| Coen Carr F | 31 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 28 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Carson Cooper C | 22 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Scott F | 21 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Kur Teng G | 17 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Cam Ward F | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Colin Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nick Sanders G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kaleb Glenn
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSU -6.5
ModelMSU -5.0
Model edgeIU +1.5
L MSU covered
Total
Market145.5
Model145.0
Model edgeUnder 0.5
W Under
Projected score
IU 70 · MSU 75
IU 60 · MSU 81
Win probability
MSU 67%
1st half
Spread
MSU -2.9
MSU -7.0
Total
67.9
71 points
Projected score
IU 32.5 · MSU 35.4
IU 32 · MSU 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -6.5
no move
CloseMSU -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open139.5
▲ 6
Close145.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
IU +240 · MSU -298
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -6.5 · unchangedmodel MSU -5
model MSU -5
Opened 139.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 6 upmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| MSU | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
IU 3–2 MSUIU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · IU has won the last 2 meetings · IU 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | IU 71 @ MSU 67 | MSU -11.5 | IU W |
| Mar 10, 2023-24 | MSU 64 @ IU 65 | IU +3.5 | IU W |
| Feb 21, 2022-23 | IU 65 @ MSU 80 | MSU -3.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 22, 2022-23 | MSU 69 @ IU 82 | IU -4.5 | IU W |
| Feb 12, 2021-22 | IU 61 @ MSU 76 | MSU -4 | MSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Indiana
16 games played
Straight up
12-4
75% wins
Against the spread
8-8
50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs AAMU | W 98-51 | -30.5 | W +16.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 9 | vs MARQ | W 100-77 | -3.5 | W +19.5 | 156.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 12 | vs MILW | W 101-70 | -24.5 | W +6.5 | 165.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 16 | vs UIW | W 69-61 | -28.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 20 | vs LIN | W 73-53 | -32.5 | L −12.5 | 155.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 25 | vs KSU | W 86-69 | -10.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 29 | vs BCU | W 100-56 | -29.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 3 | @ MINN | L 64-73 | -7.5 | L −16.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | vs LOU | L 78-87 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 9 | vs PSU | W 113-72 | -14.5 | W +26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 13 | @ UK | L 60-72 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs CHST | W 78-58 | -38.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 22 | vs SIE | W 81-60 | -21.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 4 | vs WASH | W 90-80 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 7 | @ MD | W 84-66 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vs NEB | L 77-83 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsAAMU
AAMUW 98-51
+16.5
9
vsMARQ
MARQW 100-77
+19.5
12
vsMILW
MILWW 101-70
+6.5
16
vsUIW
UIWW 69-61
−20.5
20
vsLIN
LINW 73-53
−12.5
25
vsKSU
KSUW 86-69
+6.5
29
vsBCU
BCUW 100-56
+14.5
3
@MINN
MINNL 64-73
−16.5
6
vsLOU
LOUL 78-87
−5.5
9
vsPSU
PSUW 113-72
+26.5
13
@UK
UKL 60-72
−8.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 78-58
−18.5
22
vsSIE
SIEW 81-60
−0.5
4
vsWASH
WASHW 90-80
+0.5
7
@MD
MDW 84-66
+10.5
10
vsNEB
NEBL 77-83
−10.5
covered 8didn’t cover 8avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsAAMU
AAMUW 98-51
+1.5
9
vsMARQ
MARQW 100-77
+20.5
12
vsMILW
MILWW 101-70
+5.5
16
vsUIW
UIWW 69-61
−27.5
20
vsLIN
LINW 73-53
−29.5
25
vsKSU
KSUW 86-69
−9.5
29
vsBCU
BCUW 100-56
+7.5
3
@MINN
MINNL 64-73
−7.5
6
vsLOU
LOUL 78-87
+2.5
9
vsPSU
PSUW 113-72
+32.5
13
@UK
UKL 60-72
−24.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 78-58
−16.5
22
vsSIE
SIEW 81-60
−4.5
4
vsWASH
WASHW 90-80
+17.5
7
@MD
MDW 84-66
+2.5
10
vsNEB
NEBL 77-83
+9.5
over 9under 7avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
16 games played
Straight up
14-2
88% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-11
31% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vsUK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
over 5under 11avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Indiana
12-4 overall · 3-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Nebraska77–83
- W@ Maryland84–66
- Wvs Washington90–80
- Wvs Siena81–60
- Wvs Chicago St78–58
3 days since their last game.
Michigan St
14-2 overall · 4-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Northwestern76–66
- Wvs USC80–51
- L@ Nebraska56–58
- Wvs Cornell114–97
- Wvs Oakland79–70
5 days since their last game.