Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence · Conference game
Closing line
PROV -3.5✓ MARQ covered by 25.5
PROV -3.5✓ MARQ covered by 25.5Closing total161.5Under by 27.5
 MARQ | This season | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| 10-19 | Record | 14-15 |
| 11-18 | ATS | 17-12 |
| 14-15 | O/U | 20-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MARQ 82–87 PROV · ✗ PROV (66%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARQ | 37 | 41 | 78 |
| PROV | 23 | 33 | 56 |
1st half: MARQ 37, PROV 23 (MARQ by 14). The model had PROV by 2.7 and a total of 78.8 (actual 60).
Team stats
| MARQ | PROV | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-58 45% | Field goals | 17-55 31% |
| 9-28 32% | 3-pointers | 7-30 23% |
| 17-21 81% | Free throws | 15-21 71% |
| 38 10 off | Rebounds | 38 14 off |
| 15 | Assists | 7 |
| 14 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 17 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| MARQ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Stevens G | 31 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 8-12 | 5-8 |
| Royce Parham F | 30 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Nigel James Jr. G | 29 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 7-16 | 2-6 |
| Ben Gold F | 24 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Chase Ross G | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Damarius Owens SF | 18 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Tre Norman G | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Michael Phillips II SF | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Caedin Hamilton F | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joshua Clark F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sheek Pearson, Braeden Brenn, Nash Walker, Ian Miletic, Casey O'Malley, Jonah Lucas, Sean Jones
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Sellers G | 37 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 5-13 | 4-9 |
| Ryan Mela G | 30 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 5-7 | 3-4 |
| Jamier Jones G | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 29 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Jason Edwards G | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-11 | 0-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Stefan Vaaks G | 24 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1-12 | 0-8 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nilavan Daniels G | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Duncan Powell F | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jack Williams G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Peteris Pinnis, Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Corey Floyd Jr.
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPROV -3.5
ModelPROV -4.8
Model edgePROV +1.3
L MARQ covered
Total
Market161.5
Model168.8
Model edgeOver 7.3
L Under
Projected score
MARQ 82 · PROV 86.8
MARQ 78 · PROV 56
Win probability
PROV 66%
1st half
Spread
PROV -2.7
MARQ -14.0
Total
78.8
60 points
Projected score
MARQ 38.1 · PROV 40.8
MARQ 37 · PROV 23
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPROV -6.5
3 → MARQ
ClosePROV -3.5
3 pts toward MARQ
Total
Open165.5
▼ 4
Close161.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
MARQ +150 · PROV -180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PROV -6.5 · closed PROV -3.5 · moved 3 toward MARQmodel PROV -5
model PROV -5
Opened 165.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 4 downmodel 169
model 169
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARQ | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| PROV | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MARQ 7–3 PROVMARQ leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MARQ has won the last 5 meetings · MARQ 7-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025-26 | PROV 104 @ MARQ 105 | MARQ -2.5 | PROV W |
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | PROV 52 @ MARQ 82 | MARQ -13.5 | MARQ W |
| Dec 31, 2024-25 | MARQ 78 @ PROV 50 | PROV +7.5 | MARQ W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | PROV 68 vs MARQ 79 | MARQ -4.5 | MARQ W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | PROV 69 @ MARQ 91 | MARQ -11.5 | MARQ W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Marquette
29 games played
Straight up
10-19
34% wins
Against the spread
11-18
38% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-15
48% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UALB | W 80-53 | -24.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 5 | vs SOU | W 100-82 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 9 | vs IU | L 77-100 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 12 | vs LR | W 89-49 | -21.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | vs MD | L 82-89 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs DAY | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs CMU | W 85-71 | -25.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 28 | vs OU | L 74-75 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 162.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs VAL | W 75-72 | -17.5 | L −14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 6 | @ WIS | L 76-96 | +11.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ PUR | L 59-79 | +16.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs GTWN | L 69-78 | -6.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 20 | @ CREI | L 63-84 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 30 | vs HALL | L 73-79 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 4 | @ CONN | L 57-73 | +17.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | vs XAV | W 66-65 | -5.5 | L −4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vs VILL | L 73-76 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 13 | @ SJU | L 68-92 | +15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 16 | @ DEP | L 75-80 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 19 | vsPROV | W 105-104 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 23 | @ BTLR | L 76-87 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 27 | vsCREI | W 86-62 | +1.5 | W +25.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 31 | @HALL | L 64-69 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 7 | vsBTLR | W 70-55 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 10 | @VILL | L 74-77 | +9.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 14 | @XAV | L 88-96 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 157.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 18 | vsSJU | L 70-76 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 24 | @GTWN | W 76-60 | +2.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | U 136 |
| Mar 1 | vsDEP | L 51-62 | -4.5 | L −15.5 | 139.5 | U 113 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
+2.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
−6.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
−19.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
+18.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
−15.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−12.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
−11.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
+0.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
−14.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
−8.5
13
@PUR
PURL 59-79
−3.5
17
vsGTWN
GTWNL 69-78
−15.5
20
@CREI
CREIL 63-84
−14.5
30
vsHALL
HALLL 73-79
−7.5
4
@CONN
CONNL 57-73
+1.5
7
vsXAV
XAVW 66-65
−4.5
10
vsVILL
VILLL 73-76
+0.5
13
@SJU
SJUL 68-92
−8.5
16
@DEP
DEPL 75-80
−2.5
19
vsPROV
PROVW 105-104
−1.5
23
@BTLR
BTLRL 76-87
−5.5
27
vsCREI
CREIW 86-62
+25.5
31
@HALL
HALLL 64-69
+1.5
7
vsBTLR
BTLRW 70-55
+11.5
10
@VILL
VILLL 74-77
+6.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 88-96
−6.5
18
vsSJU
SJUL 70-76
+2.5
24
@GTWN
GTWNW 76-60
+18.5
1
vsDEP
DEPL 51-62
−15.5
covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
−16.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
+26.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
+20.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
−17.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
+24.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−3.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
+3.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
−13.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
+0.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
+11.5
13
@PUR
PURL 59-79
−16.5
17
vsGTWN
GTWNL 69-78
−2.5
20
@CREI
CREIL 63-84
−4.5
30
vsHALL
HALLL 73-79
+6.5
4
@CONN
CONNL 57-73
−14.5
7
vsXAV
XAVW 66-65
−26.5
10
vsVILL
VILLL 73-76
+2.5
13
@SJU
SJUL 68-92
+4.5
16
@DEP
DEPL 75-80
+9.5
19
vsPROV
PROVW 105-104
+41.5
23
@BTLR
BTLRL 76-87
+1.5
27
vsCREI
CREIW 86-62
−6.5
31
@HALL
HALLL 64-69
−10.5
7
vsBTLR
BTLRW 70-55
−30.5
10
@VILL
VILLL 74-77
+6.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 88-96
+26.5
18
vsSJU
SJUL 70-76
−11.5
24
@GTWN
GTWNW 76-60
−14.5
1
vsDEP
DEPL 51-62
−26.5
over 14under 15avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Providence
29 games played
Straight up
14-15
48% wins
Against the spread
17-12
59% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-9
69% overs · avg +10.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vsWIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vsHALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsCONN | L 98-103 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | @XAV | L 84-97 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 13 | vsVILL | L 82-88 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 16 | vsCREI | W 93-88 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 161.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 19 | @MARQ | L 104-105 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 24 | vsGTWN | L 78-81 | -5.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 27 | @CONN | L 81-87 | +15.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 30 | @VILL | L 73-87 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 4 | vsBTLR | W 97-87 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 168.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 7 | vsDEP | W 90-72 | -4.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 11 | @HALL | L 80-87 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 14 | vsSJU | L 69-79 | +6.5 | L −3.5 | 167.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 21 | @DEP | W 71-68 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 25 | vsXAV | W 94-84 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 170.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 28 | @CREI | W 79-76 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 166.5 | U 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+4.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
−14.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
−3.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+7.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+1.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−8.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+9.5
30
@VILL
VILLL 73-87
−5.5
4
vsBTLR
BTLRW 97-87
+7.5
7
vsDEP
DEPW 90-72
+13.5
11
@HALL
HALLL 80-87
−2.5
14
vsSJU
SJUL 69-79
−3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 71-68
+5.5
25
vsXAV
XAVW 94-84
+4.5
28
@CREI
CREIW 79-76
+6.5
covered 17didn’t cover 12avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+48.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
+15.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
+13.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+19.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+41.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−0.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+15.5
30
@VILL
VILLL 73-87
+2.5
4
vsBTLR
BTLRW 97-87
+15.5
7
vsDEP
DEPW 90-72
+8.5
11
@HALL
HALLL 80-87
+16.5
14
vsSJU
SJUL 69-79
−19.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 71-68
−13.5
25
vsXAV
XAVW 94-84
+7.5
28
@CREI
CREIW 79-76
−11.5
over 20under 9avg +10.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Marquette
10-19 overall · 5-13 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs DePaul51–62
- W@ Georgetown76–60
- Lvs St John's70–76
- L@ Xavier88–96
- L@ Villanova74–77
3 days since their last game.
Providence
14-15 overall · 7-11 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Creighton79–76
- Wvs Xavier94–84
- W@ DePaul71–68
- Lvs St John's69–79
- L@ Seton Hall80–87
4 days since their last game.