Cintas Center · at Xavier · Conference game
Closing line
PROV -1.5✓ XAV covered by 14.5
PROV -1.5✓ XAV covered by 14.5Closing total165.5Over by 15.5
| PROV | This season | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | Record | 9-7 |
| 9-6 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 10-5 | O/U | 9-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PROV 85–84 XAV · ✗ PROV (57%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 35 | 49 | 84 |
| XAV | 44 | 53 | 97 |
1st half: PROV 35, XAV 44 (XAV by 9). The model had PROV by 1.3 and a total of 79.0 (actual 79).
Team stats
| PROV | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-69 45% | Field goals | 37-75 49% |
| 8-32 25% | 3-pointers | 12-30 40% |
| 14-21 67% | Free throws | 11-15 73% |
| 41 8 off | Rebounds | 38 6 off |
| 20 | Assists | 23 |
| 1 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 30 |
Players
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Edwards G | 35 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 6-15 | 2-8 |
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 30 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-1 |
| Duncan Powell F | 26 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 21 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4-12 | 1-4 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Stefan Vaaks G | 32 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 7-15 | 3-10 |
| Ryan Mela G | 29 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Nilavan Daniels G | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Williams, Peteris Pinnis, Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Jamier Jones
| XAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Messina-Moore G | 38 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 7-14 | 5-9 |
| Filip Borovicanin F | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6-14 | 3-7 |
| Tre Carroll F | 36 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8-13 | 0-1 |
| Jovan Milicevic F | 25 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 8-12 | 4-5 |
| All Wright G | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Roddie Anderson G | 29 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6-15 | 0-4 |
| Pape N'Diaye F | 19 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Ian Sabourin F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Michael Wolf G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Henry Thole F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kason Westphal, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Mier Panoam, Anthony Robinson, Isaiah Walker
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPROV -1.5
no move
ClosePROV -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open167.5
▼ 2
Close165.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
PROV -118 · XAV -102
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PROV -1.5 · unchangedmodel PROV -2
model PROV -2
Opened 167.5 · closed 165.5 · moved 2 downmodel 169
model 169
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | PROV -1.5 | PROV -1.9 | PROV +0.4 | L XAV covered |
| Total | 165.5 | 168.9 | Over 3.4 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | PROV 85.4 · XAV 83.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | PROV -1.3 | XAV -9.0 |
| 1H total | 79.0 | 79 |
| 1H projected score | PROV 40.1 · XAV 38.9 | PROV 35 · XAV 44 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| XAV | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
PROV 3–5 XAVXAV leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · XAV has won the last 2 meetings · PROV 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | PROV 68 @ XAV 76 | XAV -11.5 | PROV W |
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | XAV 91 @ PROV 82 | PROV +2.5 | XAV W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | PROV 79 @ XAV 75 | XAV -4.5 | PROV W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | XAV 85 @ PROV 65 | PROV -2.5 | XAV W |
| Mar 1, 2022-23 | XAV 94 @ PROV 89 | PROV -3.5 | XAV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Providence
15 games played
Straight up
8-7
53% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-5
67% overs · avg +12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @ BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vs HALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @ SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vs CONN | L 98-103 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+4.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+48.5
over 10under 5avg +12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Xavier
16 games played
Straight up
9-7
56% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRST | W 66-62 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 6 | vs LEM | W 74-69 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 10 | vs SCU | L 68-87 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 14 | @ IOWA | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs ODU | W 99-69 | -10.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 21 | vs UGA | L 77-78 | +10.5 | W +9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs WVU | W 78-68 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs AMCC | W 88-67 | -13.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs SFPA | W 96-74 | -27.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 5 | vs CIN | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 12 | vs MOST | W 75-57 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 17 | vs CREI | L 57-98 | -2.5 | L −43.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 20 | @ GTWN | W 80-77 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 31 | vsCONN | L 67-90 | +11.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | @ DEP | L 77-86 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ MARQ | L 65-66 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−8.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−19.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−22.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−3.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+19.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
+9.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+15.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+7.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
−5.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+6.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−0.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
−43.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
−11.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
−6.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
+4.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−11.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−13.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−0.5
14
@IOWA
IOWAL 62-81
−0.5
18
vsODU
ODUW 99-69
+17.5
21
vsUGA
UGAL 77-78
−10.5
23
vsWVU
WVUW 78-68
+5.5
28
vsAMCC
AMCCW 88-67
+8.5
1
vsSFPA
SFPAW 96-74
+17.5
5
vsCIN
CINW 79-74
+5.5
12
vsMOST
MOSTW 75-57
−19.5
17
vsCREI
CREIL 57-98
+3.5
20
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-77
+7.5
31
vsCONN
CONNL 67-90
+12.5
3
@DEP
DEPL 77-86
+13.5
7
@MARQ
MARQL 65-66
−26.5
over 9under 7avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Providence
8-7 overall · 1-3 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UConn98–103
- W@ St John's77–71
- Lvs Seton Hall67–72
- L@ Butler110–113
- Wvs Brown86–79
3 days since their last game.
Xavier
9-7 overall · 1-4 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Marquette65–66
- L@ DePaul77–86
- Lvs UConn67–90
- W@ Georgetown80–77
- Lvs Creighton57–98
3 days since their last game.