Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -1.5✓ SMU covered by 0.5
NCSU -1.5✓ SMU covered by 0.5Closing total159.5Over by 7.5
| NCSU | This season | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 16-6 | Record | 15-6 |
| 13-9 | ATS | 9-12 |
| 13-9 | O/U | 11-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCSU 81–82 SMU · ✗ SMU (51%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 34 | 50 | 84 |
| SMU | 42 | 41 | 83 |
1st half: NCSU 34, SMU 42 (SMU by 8). The model had SMU by 0.0 and a total of 76.2 (actual 76).
Team stats
| NCSU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-61 46% | Field goals | 32-67 48% |
| 16-36 44% | 3-pointers | 12-22 55% |
| 12-20 60% | Free throws | 7-12 58% |
| 34 8 off | Rebounds | 39 12 off |
| 19 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 2 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrion Williams F | 34 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 8-18 | 6-12 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Tre Holloman G | 31 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 28 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Matt Able G | 22 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-9 | 2-6 |
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 21 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jerry Deng, Alyn Breed, Jayme Kontuniemi, Jordan Snell, Colt Langdon, Zymicah Wilkins
| SMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron Pierre Jr. G | 35 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 10-20 | 3-6 |
| B.J. Edwards G | 33 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-3 |
| Boopie Miller G | 30 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 5-13 | 1-2 |
| Corey Washington F | 27 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Samet Yigitoglu C | 26 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. F | 18 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Sam Walters F | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Jaden Toombs F | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| B.J. Davis-Ray G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mitchell Holmes F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Billy White III, Niccolo Kalischer-Stork, Chance Puryear, Trey Utter, Nigel Walls
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNCSU -1.5
ModelSMU -0.2
Model edgeSMU +1.7
W SMU covered
Total
Market159.5
Model162.8
Model edgeOver 3.3
W Over
Projected score
NCSU 81.3 · SMU 81.5
NCSU 84 · SMU 83
Win probability
SMU 51%
1st half
Spread
SMU -0.0
SMU -8.0
Total
76.2
76 points
Projected score
NCSU 38.1 · SMU 38.1
NCSU 34 · SMU 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -1.5
no move
CloseNCSU -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open161.5
▼ 2
Close159.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
NCSU -115 · SMU -105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel SMU -0
model SMU -0
Opened 161.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 2 downmodel 163
model 163
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| SMU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NCSU 0–1 SMUSMU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NCSU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | SMU 63 @ NCSU 57 | NCSU +3.5 | SMU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC State
22 games played
Straight up
16-6
73% wins
Against the spread
13-9
59% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vs WAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs UVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ FSU | W 113-69 | -4.5 | W +39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 17 | vs GT | L 74-78 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | @ CLEM | W 80-76 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 24 | @ PITT | W 81-72 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vs SYR | W 88-68 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @WAKE | W 96-78 | -5.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+39.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−21.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+6.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+2.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+9.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+12.5
covered 13didn’t cover 9avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
10
@FSU
FSUW 113-69
+21.5
17
vsGT
GTL 74-78
−2.5
20
@CLEM
CLEMW 80-76
+13.5
24
@PITT
PITTW 81-72
+8.5
27
vsSYR
SYRW 88-68
+4.5
31
@WAKE
WAKEW 96-78
+17.5
over 13under 9avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
SMU
21 games played
Straight up
15-6
71% wins
Against the spread
9-12
43% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-10
52% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TAR | W 96-76 | -21.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 6 | vs AMCC | W 69-58 | -23.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 11 | vs MUR | W 102-91 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vs BTLR | W 87-85 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 18 | vs UAPB | W 106-60 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 166 |
| Nov 21 | vs ARST | W 100-69 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs RAD | W 89-72 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 28 | @ MSST | W 87-81 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ VAN | L 69-88 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 7 | vs TA&M | W 93-80 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 13 | vs LSU | L 77-89 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vs CARK | W 99-82 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 28 | vs CSUF | W 110-63 | -21.5 | W +25.5 | 170.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 3 | vs UNC | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 155.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 7 | @CLEM | L 70-74 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ DUKE | L 75-82 | +15.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | vs VT | W 77-76 | -8.5 | L −7.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 17 | vsUVA | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 20 | @WAKE | W 91-79 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 157.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 24 | vsFSU | W 83-80 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 31 | @ LOU | L 74-88 | +9.5 | L −4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
−1.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−12.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+0.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
−5.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
+10.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
+16.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−6.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+7.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+14.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
−10.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
−7.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+25.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+12.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−0.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+8.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−7.5
17
vsUVA
UVAL 68-72
−1.5
20
@WAKE
WAKEW 91-79
+13.5
24
vsFSU
FSUW 83-80
−8.5
31
@LOU
LOUL 74-88
−4.5
covered 9didn’t cover 12avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
+27.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−33.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+28.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
+8.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
−2.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
−3.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−4.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+5.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+8.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
+7.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
+24.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+2.5
3
vsUNC
UNCW 97-83
+24.5
7
@CLEM
CLEML 70-74
−5.5
10
@DUKE
DUKEL 75-82
+1.5
14
vsVT
VTW 77-76
−2.5
17
vsUVA
UVAL 68-72
−13.5
20
@WAKE
WAKEW 91-79
+12.5
24
vsFSU
FSUW 83-80
−0.5
31
@LOU
LOUL 74-88
−1.5
over 11under 10avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC State
16-6 overall · 7-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Wake Forest96–78
- Wvs Syracuse88–68
- W@ Pitt81–72
- W@ Clemson80–76
- Lvs Georgia Tech74–78
3 days since their last game.
SMU
15-6 overall · 4-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Louisville74–88
- Wvs Florida St83–80
- W@ Wake Forest91–79
- Lvs Virginia68–72
- Wvs Virginia Tech77–76
3 days since their last game.