Conte Forum · at Boston College · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -13.5✓ BC covered by 6.5
UVA -13.5✓ BC covered by 6.5Closing total141.5Under by 2.5
| UVA | This season | BC |
|---|---|---|
| 17-3 | Record | 9-11 |
| 12-8 | ATS | 8-12 |
| 9-11 | O/U | 7-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVA 78–67 BC · ✓ UVA (83%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 27 | 46 | 73 |
| BC | 32 | 34 | 66 |
1st half: UVA 27, BC 32 (BC by 5). The model had UVA by 6.8 and a total of 67.8 (actual 59).
Team stats
| UVA | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-64 44% | Field goals | 24-51 47% |
| 4-23 17% | 3-pointers | 3-13 23% |
| 13-18 72% | Free throws | 15-26 58% |
| 39 14 off | Rebounds | 33 8 off |
| 9 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Thomas G | 30 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 5-12 | 0-5 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 29 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 7-10 | 0-1 |
| Dallin Hall G | 23 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Sam Lewis G | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 25 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 24 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Jacari White G | 17 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Devin Tillis F | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Desmond Roberts, Martin Carrere, Owen Odom, Silas Barksdale, Elijah Gertrude, Carter Lang
| BC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hand Jr. G | 39 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 7-15 | 0-3 |
| Fred Payne G | 34 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7-18 | 2-6 |
| Boden Kapke F | 34 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Luka Toews G | 25 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Hastings F | 19 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aidan Shaw F | 22 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Chase Forte G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Caleb Steger G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jason Asemota F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Eggemeier, Marko Radunovic, Nick Petronio, Akbar Waheed III, Jack DiDonna, Jack Bailey, Kany Musungay
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -13.5
ModelUVA -11.1
Model edgeBC +2.4
W BC covered
Total
Market141.5
Model144.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
L Under
Projected score
UVA 77.9 · BC 66.8
UVA 73 · BC 66
Win probability
UVA 83%
1st half
Spread
UVA -6.8
BC -5.0
Total
67.8
59 points
Projected score
UVA 37.3 · BC 30.5
UVA 27 · BC 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -13.5
no move
CloseUVA -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open136.5
▲ 5
Close141.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
UVA -1050 · BC +675
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -13.5 · unchangedmodel UVA -11
model UVA -11
Opened 136.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 5 upmodel 144.5
model 144.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| BC | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
UVA 5–1 BCUVA leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · UVA has won the last 3 meetings · UVA 5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | BC 56 @ UVA 74 | UVA -8.5 | UVA W |
| Mar 14, 2023-24 | BC 60 vs UVA 66 | UVA -5.5 | UVA W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | UVA 72 @ BC 68 | BC +1.5 | UVA W |
| Feb 22, 2022-23 | UVA 48 @ BC 63 | BC +9.5 | BC W |
| Jan 28, 2022-23 | BC 57 @ UVA 76 | UVA -14.5 | UVA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia
20 games played
Straight up
17-3
85% wins
Against the spread
12-8
60% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-11
45% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @ LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vs UNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
covered 12didn’t cover 8avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
over 9under 11avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Boston College
20 games played
Straight up
9-11
45% wins
Against the spread
8-12
40% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-13
35% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ FAU | L 78-83 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 6 | vs CIT | W 76-47 | -15.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 11 | vs CCSU | L 59-60 | -17.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 15 | @ TEM | W 76-71 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 18 | vsHAMP | W 63-52 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Nov 21 | vs DAV | L 49-59 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 108 |
| Nov 23 | vs TULN | L 90-93 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs HARV | W 73-60 | -7.5 | W +5.5 | 138.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 3 | vs LSU | L 69-78 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 6 | vs NHVN | W 67-63 | -17.5 | L −13.5 | 126.5 | O 130 |
| Dec 10 | vs MASS | L 74-76 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 22 | vs FDU | W 72-61 | -16.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 28 | vs LEM | W 72-64 | -12.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | @ GT | L 53-65 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 6 | vsNCSU | L 71-79 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @LOU | L 62-75 | +21.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | @ CLEM | L 50-74 | +15.5 | L −8.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 17 | vs SYR | W 81-73 | +5.5 | W +13.5 | 141.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 21 | vs PITT | W 65-62 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 24 | @ND | L 64-68 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@FAU
FAUL 78-83
−3.5
6
vsCIT
CITW 76-47
+13.5
11
vsCCSU
CCSUL 59-60
−18.5
15
@TEM
TEMW 76-71
+8.5
18
vsHAMP
HAMPW 63-52
−1.5
21
vsDAV
DAVL 49-59
−11.5
23
vsTULN
TULNL 90-93
−5.5
26
vsHARV
HARVW 73-60
+5.5
3
vsLSU
LSUL 69-78
−1.5
6
vsNHVN
NHVNW 67-63
−13.5
10
vsMASS
MASSL 74-76
−3.5
22
vsFDU
FDUW 72-61
−5.5
28
vsLEM
LEMW 72-64
−4.5
3
@GT
GTL 53-65
−5.5
6
vsNCSU
NCSUL 71-79
+3.5
10
@LOU
LOUL 62-75
+8.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 50-74
−8.5
17
vsSYR
SYRW 81-73
+13.5
21
vsPITT
PITTW 65-62
+5.5
24
@ND
NDL 64-68
+3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 12avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@FAU
FAUL 78-83
+12.5
6
vsCIT
CITW 76-47
−21.5
11
vsCCSU
CCSUL 59-60
−17.5
15
@TEM
TEMW 76-71
+4.5
18
vsHAMP
HAMPW 63-52
−20.5
21
vsDAV
DAVL 49-59
−32.5
23
vsTULN
TULNL 90-93
+42.5
26
vsHARV
HARVW 73-60
−5.5
3
vsLSU
LSUL 69-78
−2.5
6
vsNHVN
NHVNW 67-63
+3.5
10
vsMASS
MASSL 74-76
+6.5
22
vsFDU
FDUW 72-61
−8.5
28
vsLEM
LEMW 72-64
−10.5
3
@GT
GTL 53-65
−27.5
6
vsNCSU
NCSUL 71-79
+8.5
10
@LOU
LOUL 62-75
−13.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 50-74
−12.5
17
vsSYR
SYRW 81-73
+12.5
21
vsPITT
PITTW 65-62
−10.5
24
@ND
NDL 64-68
−5.5
over 7under 13avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia
17-3 overall · 6-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Notre Dame100–97
- Lvs North Carolina80–85
- W@ SMU72–68
- W@ Louisville79–70
- Wvs Stanford70–55
4 days since their last game.
Boston College
9-11 overall · 2-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Notre Dame64–68
- Wvs Pitt65–62
- Wvs Syracuse81–73
- L@ Clemson50–74
- L@ Louisville62–75
A week or more of rest.